NZ Fuel Supply Model — Hormuz Crisis Scenario Tool

NZ fuel supply security · internal research · 27 Mar 2026

Hormuz crisis — supply chain & stock model

FUEL SCE · CONFIRMED

MBIE 20 Mar

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MODEL PROJECTED

under scenario

This model is an independent analytical exercise by Brian Kearney. It does not represent the views of MBIE, any government agency, or any employer. All scenario outputs are illustrative projections under stated assumptions, not forecasts or predictions.

Crisis start 28 Feb 2026 · Today Day +27 · MBIE data 18 Mar (published 20 Mar) · SCE level 1 · Last confirmed departure 24 Mar (3-day gap) · Strait throughput <10%

Petrol

57.9days (incl. on-water)

MSO floor: 28 days

Buffer above MSO: 29.9 days

Diesel

49.9days (incl. on-water)

MSO floor: 21 days · tightest buffer

Buffer above MSO: 28.9 days

Jet fuel

46.8days (incl. on-water)

MSO floor: 24 days

Buffer above MSO: 22.8 days

Scenario assumptions

Load scenario:

Hormuz closure duration?How long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or severely restricted. ~20% of global oil transits Hormuz. Shorter = faster recovery of crude supply to Asian refineries. 30d is optimistic (diplomatic resolution); 60d is the base case; 180d assumes no resolution.

S.Korea export ban?S.Korea may restrict refined fuel exports to preserve domestic supply. S.Korea provides 48% of NZ's fuel imports. A ban would immediately halt NZ-bound cargoes from Korean refineries. Historically, S.Korea has enacted export controls during past energy crises.

NZ demand reduction?Domestic demand response — either voluntary (price-driven) or government-mandated rationing. NZ's fuel emergency response levels: Level 2 = voluntary conservation (~25% reduction); Level 4 = mandatory rationing (~50%). No demand reduction is the most conservative assumption for stock depletion forecasts.

Refinery throughput detail Sing. 60% S.Korea 50%

SingaporeSRC confirmed 8 Mar

Current throughput?Singapore Refining Company confirmed a cutback to 60% on 8 Mar. This is a known fact, not an estimate. Singapore refineries are 65% dependent on Middle East crude — the cutback reflects reduced crude feedstock from the Hormuz disruption.

Cutback enacted?The day the throughput reduction took effect. Cargoes loaded before this date left at the pre-crisis full production rate. SRC confirmed the cut on Day 8 (8 March). Any NZ-bound cargo loaded before this date carries a full load regardless of the throughput setting.

Further cutback date?If Hormuz remains closed, refineries may need to cut further as crude buffers deplete. This sets when a second, deeper cut begins. "No further cutback" means current throughput holds until crude stocks run out (see crude crash timing in the timeline).

Cutback target?The throughput level the refinery ramps down to over 20 days after the further cutback date. The "ME floor" (35%) represents the maximum output sustainable using only non-Middle East crude sources — effectively the hard floor when ME crude is exhausted.

S.Koreaestimated

Current throughput?Not yet confirmed — this is an estimate based on industry reports. S.Korea is 71% dependent on ME crude, suggesting a deeper cut than Singapore. 50% is the base case; 70% if S.Korea's strategic reserves cushion the blow; 30% if disruption is worse than expected.

Cutback enacted?Estimated day S.Korean refineries began reducing output. S.Korea has larger strategic crude reserves than Singapore, so may have taken slightly longer to cut. Day +10 is the base estimate. Cargoes loaded before this date are assumed to carry full loads.

Further cutback date?When S.Korean refineries cut output further. Same logic as Singapore — crude buffers deplete over time. S.Korea's 25-day crude buffer gives it more runway before a second cut is needed. "No further cutback" means throughput holds at the current level until the crude crash.

Cutback target?S.Korea's ME floor is 29% — the output level sustainable from non-ME crude alone (S.Korea is 71% ME-dependent). This is the hard floor when Korean crude stocks are fully exhausted. Below this requires alternative crude sources or demand destruction.

Australia alternative supply?Whether Australia diverts some refined product exports to NZ to fill the gap from reduced S.Korea/Singapore supply. Australia has limited surplus refining capacity and would likely prioritise domestic supply. "None" is the most conservative assumption. Australia is only 4 days transit from NZ vs 17 for Asia.

90-day stock forecast

Stock levels by product (days of cover)

Solid lines = total stock (onshore + on-water). Dashed = onshore only. Thin dashed horizontals = MSO floors. Green band = confirmed vessel arrivals (actual data). Red band = departure gap (no confirmed departures → zero arrivals). Right of bands = smoothed model projections.

Supply vs consumption (normalized — 1.0 = normal)

Each bar = average daily inflow for that week. When bars fall below the red dashed consumption line, stocks are depleting. Bold bars use actual vessel tracking data. Faded bars = departure gap (zero confirmed supply). Standard bars = smoothed model.

Confirmed vessel pipeline VESSEL TRACKING 25 MAR · MBIE 22 MAR BASELINE

On-water vessels 11

Confirmed supply 35.4 days

Window 19 Mar–13 Apr

MBIE on-water P 24.2 · D 28.3 · J 23.4

ETA	Day	Vessel	Port	Type	DWT	Supply	Running bal.
19 Mar	+19	Hafnia Falcon DISCHARGED	Marsden Pt	Oil/chem	50,000	+2.0d	+3.0
19 Mar	+19	Torm Diana DOCKED	Tauranga	Products	50,000	+2.0d	+3.0
20 Mar	+20	Pacific Crystal DISCHARGED	Bluff	Products	50,000	+2.0d	+4.0
21 Mar	+21	Torm Herdis DEPARTED	Marsden Pt	Products	115,109	+4.6d	+7.6
22 Mar	+22	Magnolia Express DISCHARGING	Timaru	Products	50,000	+2.0d	+8.6
23 Mar	+23	Oak Express COASTAL	New Plymouth	Products	46,700	+1.9d	+9.5
24 Mar	+24	STI Magic COASTAL	Wellington	Products	47,500	+1.9d	+10.4
24 Mar	+24	Diamond Express COASTAL	Nelson	Products	45,600	+1.8d	+12.2
30 Mar	+30	Front Pollux	Marsden Pt	Products	110,000	+4.4d	+10.6
3 Apr	+34	CS Fujairah	Lyttelton	Products	50,629	+2.0d	+8.6
7 Apr	+38	AMASYA	Wellington	Products	~50,000	+2.0d	+6.6
8 Apr	+39	Redwood Mariner	Tauranga	Products	50,275	+2.0d	+7.6
10 Apr	+41	Chang Hang Kai Tuo	Marsden Pt	Products	45,790	+1.8d	+7.4
11 Apr	+42	Oriental Aquamarine	Tauranga	Products	49,883	+2.0d	+7.4
8 Apr	+39	Hafnia Expedite	Marsden Pt	Products	74,634	+3.0d	+9.4

Running balance = cumulative supply minus cumulative consumption since 19 Mar. 15 vessels tracked. Silver Philippa excluded (arrived/discharged before MBIE baseline). MBIE daily demand: P 8.1 + D 10.7 + J 4.8 = 23.6 ML/day. 27 Mar update: MBIE rebased to Day 22. Departure gap growing: 3 days (Day 27 minus Day 24). Widespread coastal delays. Oriental Aquamarine dest changed to Tauranga (was Lyttelton). CS Fujairah ETA slipped to 3 Apr (Day 34). Front Pollux passing New Caledonia, on track 30 Mar. No new source port departures. Full vessel tracking detail →

Key trigger dates

Day 0 (28 Feb) Day +30 Day +60 Day +90

Known facts & base data

Values sourced from MBIE (20 Mar 2026, data as at 18 Mar), S&P Global Platts and IEA data. Click any value to override.

Current NZ stocks (MBIE 18 Mar)

Petrol — onshore

days

Petrol — on-water

days

Diesel — onshore

days

Diesel — on-water

days

Jet fuel — onshore

days

Jet fuel — on-water

days

Petrol MSO minimum

days

Diesel MSO minimum

days

Jet fuel MSO minimum

days

Values as-at 18 Mar (MBIE release 20 Mar); model rolls forward 6 days to 24 Mar applying confirmed vessel arrivals: Hafnia Falcon + Torm Diana (Day 19), Pacific Crystal (Day 20), Torm Herdis (Day 21), Magnolia Express (Day 22), Oak Express (Day 23), Diamond Express + STI Magic (Day 24). 4 new departures confirmed 22-24 Mar via NZ Tanker Watch (Redwood Mariner, Oriental Aquamarine, Chang Hang Kai Tuo, Hafnia Expedite). Pipeline extends to Day 42 (Oriental Aquamarine). Hafnia Expedite ETA revised to Day 39 per VesselFinder AIS.

Supply chain timings

Gulf → S. Korea refinery

days

Gulf → Singapore refinery

days

S. Korea refinery → NZ

days

Singapore refinery → NZ

days

Australia refinery → NZ

days

S. Korea crude buffer

days

Singapore crude buffer

days

Supply restoration lag

days

Crude buffer = days of crude stock held at refinery. Restoration lag = time to resume full supply after Hormuz reopens.

NZ import shares & context

S. Korea share

Singapore share

Australia share

Other sources share

S.Korea ME crude dependency

Singapore ME crude dep.

NZ daily consumption

ML/d

Import shares should sum to 100%. ME dep. = % crude through Hormuz — sets throughput ceiling when ME crude exhausted.

Sources: MBIE fuel stocks update 20 Mar 2026 (data as at 18 Mar); MBIE daily demand: P 8.1 + D 10.7 + J 4.8 = 23.6 ML/day; S&P Global Platts; Argus Media; IEA Oil Market Report Mar 2026; vessel tracking 27 Mar 2026 from NZ Tanker Watch (Bluesky), VesselFinder AIS, Northport (Channel Infra), Port of Tauranga, Port Otago, Lyttelton PortControl, Napier Port, Port Nelson, CentrePort, Port Taranaki, MarineTraffic.
11 on-water vessels confirmed NZ-bound (Silver Philippa in MBIE baseline). Includes 2 new vessels (CS Fujairah, AMASYA) found via MarineTraffic AIS 23 Mar. Live vessel monitor & source port tracking → · Assumptions, methodology & sources →
NZ Fuel Supply Security Analysis