Last updated: 27 March 2026

NZ Fuel Supply — Live Monitor

Real-time tracking of NZ-bound petroleum tankers, pipeline health indicators, and source refinery port activity. Updated daily from AIS data, NZ port schedules, and VesselFinder.

Jump to: Vessel tracking · Pipeline health · New intelligence · Arrival timeline · Draught analysis · Source port monitor
Model day 27
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Crisis onset 28 Feb 2026
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MBIE data 22 Mar 2026 (published 25 Mar)
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On-water vessels 15
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Data sources Port of Tauranga · Northport (Channel Infra) · VesselFinder · MarineTraffic AIS · Port Otago · PrimePort Timaru · Napier Port · CentrePort · Port Nelson · Lyttelton · Port Taranaki · NZ Tanker Watch
On schedule
8
Within 24h of model ETA
Minor delay
1
1–3 days behind model ETA
Total supply incoming
35.4d
15 on-water vessels confirmed (MBIE baseline reconciled)
Situation changes (25 Mar)
8
Torm Diana DOCKED Tauranga 25 Mar 14:46 (after 7d at anchor). ETD 27 Mar, next Wellington · Torm Herdis DEPARTED Marsden Pt 25 Mar · Diamond Express departed Tauranga for Nelson, returns TGA 31 Mar via Wgtn · Magnolia Express now unloading Timaru (2nd delivery after Lyttelton) · Oak Express at Port Taranaki from Napier. ETD 26 Mar · STI Magic en route Wellington from NPL · CS Fujairah DWT confirmed 50,629, transiting Torres Strait, ETA Lyttelton 2 Apr · MBIE Day 22 published — model rebased · No new source port departures (gap = 1 day)
1. Vessel tracking detail
Vessel DWT Supply First NZ port Model ETA Live ETA Delta Status AIS / Draught Source
Hafnia FalconOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9607186 49,999
2.0d		 DISCHARGED — Coastal: Wellington 28 Mar 19 Mar 19 Mar 05:00 0d Discharged MT link
13.3m coastal		 Discharged Marsden Pt + Tauranga. Coastal: Wellington 28 Mar (slipped from 26 Mar), then Bluff 01 Apr (HFO)
Pacific CrystalOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9994527 50,000
2.0d		 DISCHARGED — Lyttelton + Bluff + Dunedin 20 Mar 22 Mar 19:00 0d Discharged MT link
— discharged		 Multi-port NZ coastal complete. Discharged Lyttelton + Bluff + Dunedin.
Torm HerdisCrude Oil Tanker · IMO 9797981 115,109
4.6d		 DEPARTED Marsden Pt — Discharged 21 Mar 21 Mar 13:00 0d Discharged MT link
13.6m departed		 DEPARTED Marsden Pt 25 Mar (ETD was 08:00). Discharged.
Torm DianaOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9702223 49,999
2.0d		 DOCKED Tauranga — discharging. ETD 28 Mar 23 Mar 25 Mar 14:46 +2d Docked MT link
11.0m docked, discharging		 DOCKED Tauranga 25 Mar 14:46 (after 7d at anchor since 18 Mar). ETD 28 Mar 15:00 (slipped from 27 Mar). Next: Wellington. From Yeosu.
Diamond ExpressOil Products Tanker · IMO 9409493 45,600
1.8d		 En route Nelson from TGA 24 Mar 23 Mar 22:00 −1d Coastal MT link
11.6m coastal		 Departed TGA 25 Mar for Nelson. Returns TGA 01 Apr (slipped from 31 Mar) via Wgtn. DWT 45,634.
Magnolia ExpressOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9901427 50,000
2.0d		 Port Otago 28 Mar → Nelson 23 Mar 22 Mar 04:25 −1d Coastal MT link
11.1m ↓ discharging		 Port Otago 28 Mar (from Timaru). Departs 29 Mar for Nelson. Multi-port: Lyttelton→Timaru→Pt Otago→Nelson. DWT 49,796.
Front PolluxCrude Oil Tanker · IMO 9780263 109,899
4.4d		 Marsden Pt 29 Mar 30 Mar 15:00 +1d On schedule MT link
12.4m loaded, passing New Caledonia		 Passing New Caledonia 27 Mar. AIS ETA 30 Mar, speed 12.1kn. Channel Infra: 30 Mar 15:00 Jetty 1, ETD 01 Apr 18:00. Departed Daesan 12 Mar.
CS FujairahOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 1073705 50,629
2.0d		 Lyttelton — 3 Apr (Day +34) — En route MT link
11.7m loaded, Coral Sea		 Departed Singapore 17 Mar (Day 17). AIS ETA 3 Apr (slipped from 2 Apr). Stale AIS 7d (mid-ocean). Dest Lyttelton. DWT 50,629. IMO 1073705.
AMASYAOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9747326 ~50,000
2.0d		 Wellington — 7 Apr (Day +38) — NEW · En route MT link
11.0m loaded, en route		 MT AIS: departed Busan, South Korea 20 Mar (Day 20). Dest NZWLG. 183m LOA, 11.8kn. Found via MarineTraffic AIS search 23 Mar — not yet on NZ port schedules.
Oak ExpressOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9405916 46,700
1.9d		 Wellington (from Port Taranaki) 27 Mar 23 Mar 07:00 −4d In port MT link
11.1m in port Wgtn		 Arrived Wellington 27 Mar from Port Taranaki. Shifts berths 28 Mar. Next: TGA(03 Apr) → Wgtn → NPL.
STI MagicOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9829447 47,500
1.9d		 At Wellington 30 Mar 24 Mar 06:00 −6d Coastal MT link
12.0m in port Wgtn		 At Wellington (arrived 25 Mar). Napier 29–30 Mar, TGA 02 Apr (slipped from 01 Apr).
Redwood MarinerOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9902861 50,275
2.0d		 Tauranga — 8 Apr (Day +39) — NEW · En route VF link
12.4m loaded, en route		 VesselFinder AIS: departed Anegasaki Japan 22 Mar (Day 22). AIS dest Tauranga. IMO 9902861. (draught 12.4m)
Oriental AquamarineOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9887619 49,883
2.0d		 Tauranga — 11 Apr (Day +42) — NEW · En route VF link
11.4m loaded, en route		 Departed Daesan, S.Korea (Day 23). AIS dest changed from Lyttelton to TAURANGA 27 Mar. ETA 11 Apr. IMO 9887619. (draught 11.4m)
Chang Hang Kai TuoOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO — 45,790
1.8d		 Marsden Point — 10 Apr (Day +41) — NEW · En route MT link
—m loaded, en route		 NZ Tanker Watch Bluesky: departed Singapore 24 Mar (Day 24). AIS dest Marsden Point.
Hafnia ExpediteOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9735593 74,634
3.0d		 Marsden Point — 8 Apr (Day +39) — NEW · En route VF link
12.6m loaded, en route		 VesselFinder AIS: departed Singapore 23 Mar (Day 23). AIS dest Marsden Point. Largest of new vessels (74,634 DWT). IMO 9735593. (draught 12.6m)
Silver PhilippaOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9692296 49,746
~1.5d		 Timaru (departed NZ) — Departed NZ → Nouméa — Departed NZ MT link
— departed		 Discharged partial cargo Timaru Day 13–18 (draught 9.9→8.7m). In MBIE Day 15 baseline. Departed NZ.
2. Pipeline health — departure cadence & visibility
Departure Gap
3 days
Days since last confirmed NZ-bound departure from a refinery port
Last departure: Chang Hang Kai Tuo + Hafnia Expedite 24 Mar from Singapore. No new departures 25–27 Mar.
● ≤4d   ● 5–7d   ● >7d
Pipeline Horizon
15 days
Last confirmed arrival (Day 42) minus today (Day 27)
Visibility ends: 11 Apr 2026
● ≥14d   ● 10–13d   ● <10d
Post-Window Cover
6 vessels
Confirmed vessels arriving after Day 30 (CS Fujairah Day 34, AMASYA Day 38, Redwood Mariner Day 39, Chang Hang Kai Tuo Day 41, Hafnia Expedite Day 39, Oriental Aquamarine Day 42)
Coverage extends to Day 42
● ≥2   ● 1   ● 0
Est. departure Vessel Origin port DWT Supply Gap Source
~2 Mar (Day 2) Hafnia Falcon Singapore 50,000 2.0d — AIS dest NZMAP
~4 Mar (Day 4) Pacific Crystal Singapore 50,000 2.0d 2d AIS dest NZ LYT
~4 Mar (Day 4) Torm Herdis Singapore 115,000 4.6d 0d AIS dest NZMAP
~6 Mar (Day 6) Torm Diana Yeosu, Korea 50,000 2.0d 2d Port of Tauranga
~6 Mar (Day 6) Magnolia Express Daesan, South Korea 50,000 2.0d 0d PrimePort Timaru
~8 Mar (Day 8) Diamond Express Yeosu, Korea 46,000 1.8d 2d Port of Tauranga
~10 Mar (Day 10) Oak Express Daesan, South Korea 46,000 1.9d 2d Port of Tauranga
12 Mar (Day 12) Front Pollux Daesan, South Korea 110,000 4.4d 5d MT confirmed actual departure 12 Mar
7 Mar (Day 7) STI Magic Anegasaki, Japan 48,000 1.9d 0d MT confirmed actual departure 7 Mar (was est. ~13 Mar)
17 Mar (Day 17) CS Fujairah Singapore ~50,000 2.0d 5d MT AIS confirmed. Dest NZLYT. Found 23 Mar via AIS search — not in NZ port schedules
20 Mar (Day 20) AMASYA Busan, South Korea ~50,000 2.0d 3d MT AIS confirmed. Dest NZWLG. Found 23 Mar via AIS search — not in NZ port schedules
22 Mar (Day 22) Redwood Mariner Anegasaki, Japan 50,275 2.0d 2d NZ Tanker Watch Bluesky confirmed. Dest NZTAU. Found 24 Mar via Bluesky
23 Mar (Day 23) Oriental Aquamarine Daesan, South Korea 49,883 2.0d 1d NZ Tanker Watch Bluesky confirmed. Dest NZLYT → NZTAU (changed 27 Mar). Found 24 Mar via Bluesky
24 Mar (Day 24) Chang Hang Kai Tuo Singapore 45,790 1.8d 0d NZ Tanker Watch Bluesky confirmed. Dest NZMAP. Found 24 Mar via Bluesky
23 Mar (Day 23) Hafnia Expedite Singapore 74,634 3.0d 0d VesselFinder AIS confirmed. Dest NZMAP. Found via AIS 24 Mar. Confirmed departure Day 23.
✓ Departure gap COLLAPSED to 0 days (Day 24). Four new vessels confirmed via NZ Tanker Watch Bluesky: Redwood Mariner (Day 22), Oriental Aquamarine (Day 23), Chang Hang Kai Tuo + Hafnia Expedite (Day 24). Fresh departures from Korea, Japan, Singapore across 24 Mar.
How to read this section: Departure dates are estimated by subtracting 17-day transit time from the live arrival ETA at the first NZ port. The Departure Gap is the leading indicator — it gives up to 17 days advance warning of a supply interruption. In normal operations, NZ receives roughly 1 tanker departure every 2–3 days from Korean, Singaporean, or Japanese refineries. A gap exceeding 7 days means a "hole" in the pipeline that will manifest as a stock drawdown ~17 days later.

Silver Philippa is excluded from this table because she originated from Pago Pago (a fuel hub/storage, not a refinery port) and represents redistribution rather than fresh refinery output.

Key ports to monitor for new departures: Yeosu, Daesan, Ulsan (Korea) · Singapore/Jurong · Anegasaki, Chiba, Sakai (Japan).

To update: When a new vessel appears on port schedules or AIS with an NZ destination, add it to the departure log, recalculate the departure gap, and update all three metric cards.
3. New intelligence from port data

Multi-port discharge routes

Port of Tauranga schedule reveals that tankers are not discharging at a single port. They follow multi-port routes around New Zealand, distributing product across terminals:

VesselRoute (origin → NZ ports)
Hafnia Falcon Singapore → Marsden Pt (19 Mar discharging) → Singapore (return voyage)
Torm Diana Yeosu 🇰🇷 → Tauranga (DOCKED 25 Mar, ETD 28 Mar) → Wellington
Diamond Express Yeosu 🇰🇷 → Tauranga (23 Mar) → Nelson (departed TGA 25 Mar) → Wellington → Tauranga (31 Mar) → Nelson
Oak Express Daesan 🇰🇷 → Napier (23 Mar) → New Plymouth (25 Mar) → Wellington → Tauranga (02 Apr) → Wellington → New Plymouth
STI Magic Chiba 🇯🇵 → New Plymouth (24 Mar) → Wellington (25 Mar, depart 26 Mar) → Napier (30 Mar) → Tauranga (01 Apr)
Pacific Crystal Geelong 🇦🇺 → Lyttelton → Bluff → Dunedin (DISCHARGED. Multi-port complete.)
Magnolia Express Yeosu 🇰🇷 → Lyttelton (22 Mar) → Timaru (unloading 25 Mar, 2nd delivery)
Model implication: The model treats each vessel as discharging at a single NZ port instantaneously. In reality, discharge is distributed across multiple ports over 2–4 days. This means onshore stock recovery is more gradual than the model shows — fuel takes time to physically move through the domestic distribution network. The model's "days of supply" landing on a single day is slightly optimistic.

Origin port confirmation

Port of Tauranga data confirms origin ports for 4 of 5 Tauranga-bound tankers. Three are from South Korean ports (Yeosu, Daesan), one from Japan. This is consistent with the model's import share assumptions (Korea 48%, Singapore 33%). The Korean origin of most confirmed cargoes makes the South Korea throughput assumption (E1) the most critical variable in the model.

Previously unconfirmed vessels — now confirmed NZ-bound

Both previously unconfirmed vessels are now confirmed. Port scrapes on 17 Mar established that Pacific Crystal and Magnolia Express are both in NZ waters and scheduled at South Island fuel terminals. This eliminates the 5.0-day supply gap risk identified in the earlier assessment.
VesselFindingSource
Pacific Crystal Arrives Port Otago Oil Jetty 21 Mar 18:15. Currently at Bluff (trade: OIL). Model had 20 Mar — only +1 day delta. Port Otago shipping schedule
Magnolia Express Arrives PrimePort Timaru 23 Mar 06:30, then Dunedin 25 Mar, then Nelson. Model had 24 Mar at Port Otago — actually arriving 1 day early at Timaru. PrimePort Timaru + Port Otago

Silver Philippa — discharged, departed

Silver Philippa discharged a partial cargo at Timaru between ~Day 13–18 (draught 9.9→8.7m). Her supply is captured in the MBIE Day 15 onshore baseline. Origin: Pago Pago (redistribution hub). Next destination: Nouméa. No longer tracked as on-water supply.
4. Arrival timeline (live ETAs)
27 Mar Today — Model Day 27. Departure gap 3 days (last departure Day 24). Widespread coastal delays: Torm Diana ETD slipped to 28 Mar, STI Magic at Wellington (Napier 29 Mar, TGA slipped to 02 Apr), Diamond Express returns TGA 01 Apr, Oak Express arrived Wellington 27 Mar. Oriental Aquamarine AIS dest changed from Lyttelton to Tauranga. Front Pollux passing New Caledonia, on track for 30 Mar Marsden Pt. No new source port departures detected.
19 Mar Hafnia Falcon → Marsden Pt (2.0d supply) ✓ DISCHARGED. ETD 21 Mar. Coastal: Tauranga now, Bluff 01 Apr
19 Mar Torm Diana → Tauranga (arrived at anchor) ✓ at anchor since 18 Mar. Berth slipped to ~27 Mar
20 Mar Hafnia Falcon → Tauranga (coastal)
21 Mar Torm Herdis → Marsden Pt (4.6d supply) ✓ DISCHARGED. DEPARTED Marsden Pt 25 Mar.
22 Mar Magnolia Express → Lyttelton (2.0d supply) ✓ ARRIVED 22 Mar. Port Otago 28 Mar (from Timaru). Departs 29 Mar for Nelson. Multi-port: Lyttelton→Timaru→Pt Otago→Nelson.
22 Mar Pacific Crystal → Port Otago Oil Jetty ✓ DISCHARGED Lyttelton + Bluff + Dunedin. Multi-port complete.
23 Mar Oak Express → Napier (1.9d supply) ✓ ARRIVED. Arrived Wellington 27 Mar from Port Taranaki. Shifts berths 28 Mar. Next: TGA(03 Apr) → Wgtn → NPL.
24 Mar STI Magic → New Plymouth (1.9d supply) ✓ ARRIVED 24 Mar. At Wellington (arrived 25 Mar). Napier 29–30 Mar, TGA 02 Apr (slipped from 01 Apr).
23 Mar Diamond Express → Tauranga (1.8d supply) ✓ ARRIVED late 23 Mar. En route Nelson from TGA (departed 25 Mar). Returns TGA 01 Apr via Wgtn.
25 Mar Torm Diana → Tauranga berth (2.0d supply) ✓ DOCKED 25 Mar 14:46 (after 7d at anchor). ETD 28 Mar 15:00 (slipped from 27 Mar). Next: Wellington.
30 Mar Front Pollux → Marsden Pt (4.4d supply) — Passing New Caledonia 27 Mar. AIS ETA 30 Mar 04:00. Channel Infra: 30 Mar 15:00, Jetty 1, ETD 01 Apr 18:00.
3 Apr CS Fujairah → Lyttelton (2.0d supply) — Departed Singapore 17 Mar. AIS ETA 3 Apr 16:00 (slipped from 2 Apr). Stale AIS 7d (mid-ocean). DWT 50,629.
8 Apr Redwood Mariner → Tauranga (2.0d supply) — NZ Tanker Watch confirmed. Departed Anegasaki Japan 22 Mar.
10 Apr Chang Hang Kai Tuo → Marsden Point (1.8d supply) — NZ Tanker Watch confirmed. Departed Singapore 24 Mar.
11 Apr Oriental Aquamarine → Tauranga (2.0d supply) — NZ Tanker Watch confirmed. Departed Daesan Korea 23 Mar. AIS dest changed from Lyttelton to Tauranga 27 Mar.
8 Apr Hafnia Expedite → Marsden Point (3.0d supply) — VesselFinder AIS confirmed. Departed Singapore 23 Mar. Largest of new vessels. IMO 9735593, draught 12.6m.
7 Apr AMASYA → Wellington (2.0d supply) — MT AIS confirmed. Departed Busan 20 Mar. Not yet on NZ port schedules.
5. Model impact assessment
ScenarioSupply impactModel adjustment
All 15 on-water vessels arrive on schedule 35.4d supply delivered by Day 42 Model baseline scenario (updated Day 27). MBIE rebased to Day 22. Pipeline includes 4 new vessels confirmed via NZ Tanker Watch. Visibility extends to Day 42.
Torm Diana arrived early (Day 19) 4 days early — advance supply front Arrived 18 Mar at Tauranga anchorage. 4 days ahead of model. Supply front-loaded.
Destination changes: Oak Express & STI Magic (multi-port routes confirmed) Full coastal distribution routes confirmed Oak Express: Napier Day 23 → Wellington → Tauranga Day 30 → Wellington → New Plymouth Day 37. STI Magic: New Plymouth Day 23 → Wellington → Napier Day 28 → Tauranga Day 38. Confirmed by Napier and Taranaki port schedules. Represents full NZ coastal fuel distribution, not single-port discharge.
New departures detected (collapse from 11-day gap to 0 days) 35.4d supply arriving through Day 42 Four vessels confirmed via NZ Tanker Watch and VesselFinder (Redwood Mariner, Oriental Aquamarine, Chang Hang Kai Tuo, Hafnia Expedite). Departure gap collapsed from 11 days (Day 12–20) to 0 days (Day 24). Fresh supply pipeline secured through 11 April.
Key situation — Day 27. Departure gap growing: 3 days since last departure (Day 24). No new source port departures detected 25–27 Mar. Widespread 1–2 day coastal delays across NZ ports. Torm Diana ETD slipped to 28 Mar 15:00 (from 27 Mar). STI Magic at Wellington, Napier 29 Mar, TGA slipped to 02 Apr. Oak Express arrived Wellington 27 Mar, shifts berths 28 Mar. Diamond Express en route Nelson, returns TGA 01 Apr. Magnolia Express at Port Otago 28 Mar, then Nelson. Front Pollux passing New Caledonia, AIS ETA 30 Mar 04:00 (on track). CS Fujairah AIS ETA slipped to 3 Apr (from 2 Apr), stale AIS 7d. Hafnia Expedite VF AIS ETA confirmed 8 Apr (Day 39). Oriental Aquamarine AIS dest changed from Lyttelton to Tauranga, ETA 11 Apr (Day 42).
6. Draught analysis — cargo loading confirmation

AIS-reported draught vs typical ballast (empty) draught confirms whether each vessel is carrying cargo. A vessel sitting well above its ballast waterline is loaded. Data from MarineTraffic free tier as at 17 March 2026.

Vessel Class DWT Reported draught Typical ballast Typical loaded Assessment Origin
Hafnia Falcon MR2 49,999 13.3m 6–7m 11–13m Discharging Marsden Pt, moored
Pacific Crystal MR2 50,000 8.3m ↓ 6–7m 11–12m Discharged Bluff moored
Torm Herdis LR2 115,109 13.6m 7–8m 13–15m Full cargo Singapore
Torm Diana MR2 49,999 11.0m 6–7m 11–12m Full cargo Yeosu, Korea
Diamond Express MR1 45,600 11.6m 6–7m 11–12m Full cargo Yeosu, Korea
Magnolia Express MR2 50,000 11.1m 6–7m 11–12m Full cargo Daesan, South Korea
Front Pollux LR2 109,899 12.4m 7–8m 13–15m Full cargo Daesan, South Korea
Oak Express MR2 46,700 11.1m 6–7m 11–12m Full cargo Daesan, South Korea
STI Magic MR2 47,500 12.1m 6–7m 11–12m Full cargo Anegasaki, Japan
Silver Philippa MR2 49,746 8.7m ↓ 6–7m 11–12m Discharging Pago Pago → Timaru
How to read this table: A tanker at ballast draught (6–8m) is empty — sailing without cargo. A tanker near its loaded draught (11–15m depending on class) is carrying a full cargo. All 9 en-route model vessels show draughts consistent with full cargoes, confirming they are carrying product to New Zealand and not repositioning empty.

Silver Philippa — confirmed discharging (18 Mar update): Draught dropped from 9.9m (17 Mar) to 8.7m (18 Mar) while moored at Timaru. This 1.2m drop confirms active cargo discharge. She arrived from Pago Pago (American Samoa) on 17 Mar with a partial cargo (~60–70% capacity based on 9.9m vs 11–12m full load). At 8.7m she is now approximately 40–50% discharged. Next AIS destination: NCNOU (Nouméa, New Caledonia) — she will depart NZ after Timaru, not making additional NZ stops. Revised supply contribution: ~1.5 days of national supply (down from initial ~2.5d estimate).

Vessel class key: MR1 = Medium Range 1 (25–45k DWT). MR2 = Medium Range 2 (45–55k DWT). LR2 = Long Range 2 (80–120k DWT). Ballast/loaded draught ranges are approximate industry norms for each class.
7. Excluded vessels
VesselTypeETAReason excluded
White Pearl (IMO 9917957) Bitumen tanker ~29 Mar → Tauranga, 01 Apr → Port Taranaki Bitumen, not refined fuel product
Awanuia (IMO 9458042) Small bunker tanker Various ~3–5k DWT domestic bunker tanker — too small, not import cargo
Stolt Hagi (IMO 9750206) Chemical tanker 9 Apr → Tauranga Chemicals (liquid), not fuel — Melbourne origin
8. Source port monitor — refinery departure tracking
Purpose: Track outgoing tanker traffic from NZ's source refinery ports. A drop in product tanker departures is an early signal of supply disruption — visible before any NZ-specific data changes. MR2-class product tankers (45–55k DWT) are the vessels that serve the NZ route.
Korean Refineries
Active
Yeosu (GS Caltex 800k bpd) & Daesan (Hyundai Oilbank 520k bpd)
Multiple crude VLCCs in port = feedstock flowing. MR2 product tankers arriving for loading.
NZ share: 48% · 6 confirmed NZ vessels from South Korean ports
Singapore Refineries
60% output
Jurong Island complex (1.5M bpd). SRC confirmed cutback to 60% on 8 Mar.
High traffic volume (~1,400 departures/day) — monitor via known NZ-route vessel names.
NZ share: 33% · 4 confirmed NZ vessels from Singapore
Australia (Geelong)
Unconfirmed
Viva Energy refinery (120k bpd). Low traffic (11 ships/30d) — easy to monitor.
2 MR2 product tankers visible (Paros Star in port, Sea Quest arriving 20 Mar).
NZ share: 12% · 0 confirmed NZ vessels — gap in our tracking
Source port Country Refinery VF traffic (30d) Tankers in port MR2 product tankers observed NZ vessels confirmed
Yeosu 🇰🇷 S.Korea GS Caltex 800k bpd 73 CAESAR (318k VLCC), SPAIN B (299k VLCC), PROTEUS HARVONNE (110k LR2), PROTEUS TRACY (110k LR2), SEAWAYS BONITA (74k), HAFNIA EXCELSIOR (75k) Korea Venus (50k), Harmony Chemist (50k), Ayame (50k), Sunshine Express (50k) — all arriving 18 Mar for loading Torm Diana, Diamond Express, Forever Cordiality (historical)
Daesan 🇰🇷 S.Korea Hyundai Oilbank 520k bpd 37 ITHAKI (300k VLCC), NORDIC HUNTER (157k), TORM GEMMA (119k LR2), AL KHTAM (115k), NAVIG8 PRECISION (110k LR2) Oriental Aquamarine (50k) — departed 23 Mar for NZ (confirmed). 308 Hyodong Chemi (4k coastal) Magnolia Express, Oak Express, Front Pollux, Oriental Aquamarine
Singapore 🇸🇬 Singapore Jurong Island 1.5M bpd 1,353 Volume too high for bulk monitoring. Use MT to check known NZ-route vessels (Hafnia, Torm, STI/Scorpio fleets) individually for NZ AIS destinations. Hafnia Falcon, Pacific Crystal, Torm Herdis, CS Fujairah, Chang Hang Kai Tuo, Hafnia Expedite
Busan 🇰🇷 S.Korea SK Energy / S-Oil TBD Not yet scraped. Found AMASYA via direct MT vessel search — departures not visible in NZ port schedules at this range. AMASYA
Geelong 🇦🇺 Australia Viva Energy 120k bpd 11 GREEN AZURE (115k crude import), PAROS STAR (45k MR2 — loading?) Paros Star (45k, in port since 17 Mar), Sea Quest (50k, arriving 20 Mar), Pacific Topaz (113k crude, arriving 22 Mar) None confirmed — MBIE says 12% from Australia
Anegasaki 🇯🇵 Japan ENEOS Chiba complex TBD Not yet scraped. Check via MarineTraffic individual vessel pages. STI Magic, Redwood Mariner
Mizushima 🇯🇵 Japan ENEOS 205k bpd TBD Not yet scraped. Historical NZ vessel: Capilano Sun. Capilano Sun (historical)

Upstream crude supply — Korean refinery feedstock (refreshed 27 March 2026)

Critical finding (refreshed Day 27): The two loaded VLCCs from the Day 19 audit (MAHARAH, VERY LUCKY) have discharged and departed. They have been partially replaced by one more pre-crisis Saudi cargo (ZAYNAH, partially discharged) and one Suezmax of Australian condensate (PROTEUS JESSICA). Meanwhile, empty VLCCs continue to congregate — ITHAKI has been anchored empty at Daesan for 18 days, and two new empty VLCCs (ARAM, VESUVIO) have arrived at Yeosu. The crude supply chain through Hormuz remains broken. No post-crisis loaded crude tanker has been detected arriving at Korean ports.
VesselDWTClassPortOriginDepartedDraughtLoading status
DAESAN — 4 crude tankers in port (27 Mar)
ZAYNAH300,759VLCCDaesanJu’aymah, Saudi Arabia (ME)~late Feb13.1mPARTIALLY DISCHARGED — pre-crisis Saudi loading
PROTEUS JESSICA109,999SuezmaxDaesanIchthys Terminal, Australia (non-ME)13 Mar12.0mLIGHT CARGO — Australian condensate (non-Hormuz)
ITHAKI299,992VLCCDaesanDaesan (local move)9 Mar11.5mBALLAST — 18 days at anchor, empty
LIAN GUI HU72,822PanamaxDaesanNot yet checked——NEW — draught not yet checked
YEOSU — 2 crude tankers spotted (27 Mar)
ARAM317,713VLCCYeosuGwangyang → Fujairah/UAE/Qatar26 Mar10.9mBALLAST — arrived from ME, empty
VESUVIO297,638VLCCYeosuMina al Ahmadi, Kuwait (ME)25 Mar11.2mBALLAST — arrived from ME, empty
Departed since Day 19 audit: MAHARAH (US crude, discharged), VERY LUCKY (Saudi pre-Hormuz, discharged), TORM GEMMA (Oman), AL KHTAM, CSK JUBILEE, NAVIG8 PRECISION, CAESAR, SPAIN B. Pre-crisis crude buffer now largely consumed.
Still no visibility on: Ulsan (SK Energy + S-Oil, 1.5M bpd combined).
Day 27 vs Day 19 comparison: The original audit found 2 loaded + 7 empty. The Day 27 refresh finds 1 partially discharged (ZAYNAH, pre-crisis Saudi) + 1 light cargo (PROTEUS JESSICA, Australian condensate) + 4 empty. The pre-crisis buffer is being consumed with no visible replacement at scale.

Draught interpretation: Loaded VLCC = 20–22m draught. Loaded Suezmax = 15–16m. Ballast (empty) = 9–12m. ZAYNAH at 13.1m = partially discharged. PROTEUS JESSICA at 12.0m = light cargo (condensate is less dense than crude). All others <12m = definitively empty.

Only non-ME crude arrival detected: PROTEUS JESSICA from Ichthys Terminal (Australia). One Suezmax of condensate does not replace the VLCC-scale crude flows that normally come through Hormuz. This is the entire visible alternative sourcing pipeline.

Model implication: MAHARAH + VERY LUCKY crude buffer has been consumed. ZAYNAH (last pre-crisis Saudi cargo) is discharging residual. After ZAYNAH completes, the only new crude input visible is one Australian condensate Suezmax. The model’s crude crash timeline (buffer exhaustion → refinery output drop) is now more strongly validated than at Day 19.

Monitoring: Track draught of crude tankers at Korean ports daily. Loaded arrivals (draught >18m for VLCC, >15m for Suezmax) = real crude supply. Ballast (draught <13m) = empty, no supply. Record origin port for each loaded arrival to distinguish ME (pre-crisis buffer) from non-ME (alternative sourcing).

Baseline scrape — 18 March 2026

PortScrape timeKey observationsMR2 product tankers
Yeosu 18 Mar 16:39 KST 250 ships in port, 73 expected 30d. 6 crude/product tankers in port (2 VLCCs = crude feedstock arriving). Recent departures all small coastal (<5k DWT). No MR2+ product tanker departures visible. 4 MR2 arriving today for loading: Korea Venus, Harmony Chemist, Ayame, Sunshine Express (all ~50k DWT). Active loading pipeline.
Daesan 18 Mar 16:45 KST 100 ships in port, 37 expected 30d. 5 crude tankers in port (ITHAKI 300k VLCC + 4 LR2s). Recent departures small vessels only. MAHARAH (299k VLCC) arriving tonight = more crude feedstock. Oriental Aquamarine (50k MR2) arrived 14:41 today. This is an NZ-class product tanker — monitor for departure destination.
Geelong 18 Mar 18:46 AEDT 28 ships in port, 11 expected 30d. Very low volume. GREEN AZURE (115k) bringing crude in. No tanker departures in recent history (only sailing vessels departing). Paros Star (45k MR2, brand new 2026) in port since 17 Mar. Sea Quest (50k MR2) arriving 20 Mar. Pacific Topaz (113k crude) arriving 22 Mar. Two MR2 tankers at/near refinery = potential NZ loading.
Singapore 18 Mar 1,792 arrivals/24h. Too noisy for VesselFinder bulk monitoring. Need MarineTraffic vessel-name searches for NZ-route fleets. Not individually identifiable in bulk data. Use MT to track Hafnia, Torm, STI fleets.
NZ Fuel Supply Security Analysis — Live Monitor
Scenario Model · Live Monitor · Assumptions & Sources
Independent research by Brian Kearney. Data from NZ port schedules, MarineTraffic AIS, VesselFinder, and MBIE.