Last updated: 28 April 2026

NZ Fuel Supply — Live Monitor

Real-time tracking of NZ-bound petroleum tankers, pipeline health indicators, and source refinery port activity. Updated daily from AIS data, NZ port schedules, and VesselFinder.

Jump to: Vessel tracking · Pipeline health · New intelligence · Arrival timeline · Draught analysis · Source port monitor ·
Model day 59
|
Crisis onset 28 Feb 2026
|
MBIE data 22 Apr 2026 (published ~25 Apr)
|
On-water vessels 8
Sources: Port of Tauranga · Northport (Channel Infra) · VesselFinder · MarineTraffic AIS · Port Otago · PrimePort Timaru · Napier Port · CentrePort · Port Nelson · Lyttelton · Port Taranaki · NZ Tanker Watch · fuelwatch.nz
Arrived / In port
17
STI Sanctity (Marsden Pt, Day 54, discharging), Oak Express 2 (Tauranga, Day 55), Grand Winner 3 (at anchor Marlborough, dock 30 Apr), TP Endurance (coastal, Wellington today), Forever Glory (Wellington, arrived 27 Apr), CC Ningbo (coastal TGA→Wgtn→Nelson→Marsden Pt 30 Apr), Chang Hang Hong Tu (Bluff→Dunedin, coastal complete), plus 10 earlier discharged vessels
MSO status
✓
All three fuels above MSO. In-country: P 36.1d (>28 MSO), D 21.9d (>21 MSO), J 24.9d (>24 MSO). Total incl on-water: P 51.8, D 41.3, J 45.7. MBIE 22 Apr data via fuelwatch.nz.
Total supply incoming
69.1d
31 vessels tracked (MBIE Day 53 baseline). 8 en route/arriving. Pipeline extended to Day 75 (14 May). Sea Orca 113,659 DWT LR2 (new) + STI Virtus (new) extend coverage. Departure gap 1d.
Situation changes (28 Apr)
9
Sea Orca NEW DEPARTURE — 113,659 DWT LR2 crude tanker, Singapore → Marsden Pt, ETA 13 May (Day 74). +4.5d supply. · STI Virtus NEW DEPARTURE — 49,990 DWT, Pengerang → TGA, ETA 14 May (Day 75). +2.0d. · Esteem Discovery (watch) — in Singapore, AIS dest Lyttelton. · Hafnia Petrel ETA Day 63→62, draught 8.3m partially laden. · TP Endurance coastal Wellington today. · Forever Glory arrived Wellington 27 Apr. · MBIE rebased Day 53 (22 Apr). · Departure gap 4d → 1d (Sea Orca Day 56, STI Virtus Day 58). · Maersk Crete excluded (Pacific Islands cargo).
1. Vessel tracking detail
Vessel DWT Supply First NZ port Model ETA Live ETA Delta Status AIS / Draught Source
Hafnia FalconOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9607186 49,999
2.0d		 DISCHARGED — Coastal: en route Bluff 19 Mar 19 Mar 05:00 0d Discharged MT link
8.6m coastal (light)		 Discharged Marsden Pt + Tauranga + Wellington. Coastal: en route Bluff. VF ETA 31 Mar 20:00. Draught 8.6m (light). Speed 12.8kn.
Pacific CrystalOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9994527 50,000
2.0d		 DISCHARGED — Lyttelton + Bluff + Dunedin 20 Mar 22 Mar 19:00 0d Discharged MT link
— discharged		 Multi-port NZ coastal complete. Discharged Lyttelton + Bluff + Dunedin.
Torm HerdisCrude Oil Tanker · IMO 9797981 115,109
4.6d		 DEPARTED Marsden Pt — Discharged 21 Mar 21 Mar 13:00 0d Discharged MT link
13.6m departed		 DEPARTED Marsden Pt 25 Mar. Discharged.
Torm DianaOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9702223 49,999
2.0d		 DEPARTED Tauranga → Wellington 23 Mar 25 Mar 14:46 +2d Discharged MT link
11.0m departed TGA 29 Mar		 DEPARTED Tauranga 29 Mar 01:16. Discharged. Next: Wellington. From Yeosu.
Magnolia ExpressOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9901427 50,000
2.0d		 DEPARTED NZ — to Indonesia 23 Mar 22 Mar 04:25 −1d Departed NZ MT link
— departed NZ		 DEPARTED Taranaki ~05 Apr to Indonesia. Multi-port complete: Lyttelton→Timaru→Pt Otago→Nelson→Taranaki. DWT 49,796.
Diamond ExpressOil Products Tanker · IMO 9409493 45,600
1.8d		 DISCHARGED — Multi-port complete 24 Mar 23 Mar 22:00 −1d Discharged MT link
— discharged		 DISCHARGED. Multi-port NZ coastal complete. DWT 45,634.
Oak ExpressOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9405916 46,700
1.9d		 DISCHARGED — Multi-port complete 27 Mar 23 Mar 07:00 −4d Discharged MT link
— discharged		 DISCHARGED. Multi-port complete: Napier→NPL→Wgtn→TGA (03–05 Apr).
STI MagicOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9829447 47,500
1.9d		 DEPARTED NZ — to Balboa PA 30 Mar 24 Mar 06:00 −6d Departed NZ MT link
— departed NZ		 DEPARTED Tauranga 03 Apr to Balboa PA. Multi-port complete: NPL→Wgtn→Napier→TGA.
Front PolluxCrude Oil Tanker · IMO 9780263 109,899
4.4d		 DEPARTED Marsden Pt — Discharged 29 Mar 30 Mar PM +1d Departed MT link
— departed		 DEPARTED Marsden Pt ~04 Apr. Discharged. DWT 109,899. From Daesan.
CS FujairahOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 1073705 50,629
2.0d		 ARRIVED Lyttelton 3 Apr 3 Apr 3 Apr (Day 34) 0d Arrived MT link
11.7m arrived		 ARRIVED Lyttelton 3 Apr 17:10. Departed Singapore 17 Mar (Day 17). DWT 50,629. IMO 1073705. ETD 05 Apr 01:00. (draught 11.7m, speed 10.4kn)
AMASYAOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9747326 ~50,000
2.0d		 ARRIVED Wellington 9 Apr — coastal — 9 Apr (Day +40) +2d Arrived MT link
10.8m arrived, coastal		 ARRIVED Wellington ~9 Apr (2d late). Now domestic coastal: Wgtn → Nelson (10 Apr) → TGA (15 Apr). From Busan, S.Korea 20 Mar (Day 20). IMO 9747326.
Redwood MarinerOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9902861 50,275
2.0d		 IN PORT Tauranga (arrived 9 Apr) — 9 Apr (Day +40) +1d In port VF link
12.4m in port TGA		 IN PORT Tauranga (arrived 9 Apr, 1d late). ETD 13 Apr. Multi-port: TGA → Napier → Wgtn. From Anegasaki, Japan 22 Mar (Day 22). IMO 9902861. (draught 12.4m)
Hafnia ExpediteOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9735593 74,634
3.0d		 ARRIVED Marsden Pt 13 Apr — 13 Apr (Day +44) +2d Arrived VF link
12.6m arrived		 ARRIVED Marsden Pt 13 Apr (Day 44) — cyclone delay resolved after holding short of Cape Reinga. From Singapore 23 Mar (Day 23). IMO 9735593. (draught 12.6m)
Chang Hang Kai TuoOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9379806 45,690
1.8d		 ARRIVED Marsden Pt 15 Apr — 15 Apr (Day +46) +3d Arrived VF link
11.2m arrived		 ARRIVED Marsden Pt 15 Apr (Day 46) — cyclone delay resolved. DWT corrected 44,999 → 45,690 per NZTW arrival post. From Pengerang, Malaysia (Day 23). IMO 9379806. (draught 11.2m)
Oriental AquamarineOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9887619 49,883
2.0d		 ARRIVED Tauranga 14 Apr — 14 Apr (Day +45) +4d Arrived VF link
11.4m arrived		 ARRIVED Tauranga 14 Apr (Day 45). Next port Lyttelton. From Daesan, S.Korea (Day 23). IMO 9887619. (draught 11.4m)
Pacific VioletOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9994577 49,999
2.0d		 ARRIVED Marsden Pt ~19 Apr — 19 Apr (Day +50) 0d Arrived VF link
11.2m arrived		 ARRIVED Marsden Pt ~19 Apr (Day 50). Captured in MBIE Day 50 data. From Singapore 29 Mar (Day 30). IMO 9994577. (draught 11.2m)
Chang Hang Hong TuOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9379777 45,765
1.8d		 ARRIVED Lyttelton ~20 Apr — 20 Apr (Day +51) 0d Arrived VF link
11.5m arrived		 ARRIVED Lyttelton ~20 Apr (Day 51). Captured in MBIE Day 50 data. From Singapore 30 Mar (Day 30). IMO 9379777. (draught 11.5m)
CC NingboOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 1083205 50,531
2.0d		 ARRIVED Tauranga ~21 Apr — coastal ~4 Apr 21 Apr (Day +52) 0d Arrived VF link
10.4m arrived, coastal		 ARRIVED Tauranga ~21 Apr (Day 52). Now coastal. Departed Kashima ~4 Apr (Day 35). Draught 10.4m (loaded ~85%). IMO 1083205. Captured in MBIE Day 50 count.
Grand Winner 3Oil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9906702 50,301
2.0d		 AT ANCHOR Wellington — dock Day 61 — 30 Apr (Day +61) +14d At anchor VF link
11.4m at anchor, Wgtn		 IN NZ WATERS since Day 47 but CentrePort berth not available until 30 Apr (Day 61). At anchor Wellington harbour. Multi-port: Wgtn → Nelson → TGA. From Ulsan S.Korea (Day 26). IMO 9906702. (draught 11.4m). Supply delayed but confirmed.
Forever GloryOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9796901 49,969
2.0d		 Wellington (coastal) — 27 Apr (Day +58) 0d Arrived VF link
10.5m coastal complete		 ARRIVED Tauranga 22 Apr (Day 53). Departed TGA 24 Apr. Coastal: Napier → Wellington (arrived 27 Apr). From Daesan, S.Korea (Day 34). IMO 9796901. Fuelwatch confirmed.
Ocean Breeze NEWOil/Chemical Tanker 50,748
1.0d		 ARRIVED Timaru 10 Apr — partial — 10 Apr (Day +41) — Arrived —
— departed NZ		 ARRIVED Timaru 10 Apr. PARTIALLY LADEN (~50% est) — delivered to Fiji + Pago Pago en route from Singapore. Tasman Fuels terminal. Departed NZ 11 Apr for Nouméa. Supply reduced to ~1.0d.
TP EnduranceOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9895197 49,999
2.0d		 Wellington (coastal) — 28 Apr (Day +59) 0d Discharging VF link
12.0m coastal		 Anchored TGA roadstead Day 46. Docked TGA berth 16 on 24 Apr. Departed TGA 25 Apr. Coastal: Napier (28 Apr) → Wellington (28 Apr). From Onsan, S.Korea 25 Mar (Day 25). IMO 9895197. Flag Norway. NZTW: docked after anchoring >1 week. Fuelwatch confirms Wellington today.
STI SanctityCrude Oil Tanker · IMO 9719707 109,999
4.4d		 Marsden Point — 23 Apr (Day +54) 0d Discharged VF link
12.5m departed		 ARRIVED Marsden Pt 23 Apr (Day 54). ATA 18:41 UTC. Jetty 1 discharging. ETD 26 Apr — assumed departed. From Ningbo Anch, China (departed 6 Apr). Last port: Gwangyang S.Korea. IMO 9719707. Flag Marshall Islands. 250m LOA. (draught 12.5m). NZTW confirmed.
STI OperaOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9719693 49,990
2.0d		 Marsden Point 15 Apr (Day 46) 1 May (Day +62) — En route VF link
11.9m loaded, AIS 11d stale		 Departed Merak/Singapore 14 Apr (Day 46). Dest Marsden Pt. VF ETA 1 May (Day 62). AIS 11d stale (mid-ocean). IMO 9669940. Flag Marshall Islands. DWT 49,990. Draught 11.9m (full cargo). Post-ceasefire departure. Torres Strait transit confirmed by NZTW 23 Apr. Fuelwatch confirms 1 May.
Esteem EndeavorOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9895201 49,999
2.0d		 Lyttelton 15 Apr (Day 46) 1 May (Day +62) — En route VF link
11.8m loaded, en route		 Departed Singapore 15 Apr (Day 46). Dest Lyttelton. VF ETA 1 May 05:45. IMO 9895201. Flag Norway. DWT 49,999. Draught 11.8m (full cargo). Post-ceasefire departure. NZTW + fuelwatch confirmed.
Gem Emerald NEWOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 1022677 49,999
2.0d		 Tauranga 21 Apr (Day 52) 8 May (Day +69) — En route VF link
11.9m loaded, en route		 Departed Tanjung Langsat, Malaysia 21 Apr (Day 52). VF ETA Tauranga 8 May (Day 69). NZTW said 12 May = wrong, VF confirmed 8 May. IMO 1022677. Flag Marshall Islands. Built 2025. DWT 49,999. Draught 11.9m (full cargo). AIS 4d stale (mid-ocean). Origin: Tanjung Langsat, Malaysia (not Singapore).
Oak Express (2) NEWOil/Chemical Tanker 46,700
1.9d		 ARRIVED Tauranga 24 Apr — 24 Apr (Day +55) 0d Arrived —
— arrived		 2nd trip to NZ. ARRIVED Tauranga 24 Apr (Day 55). From Muara, Brunei (Shell refinery). Same vessel as Day 23 entry. ~19d round trip. Fuelwatch/MarineTraffic confirmed. DWT 46,700. +1.9d supply.
Hafnia Petrel NEWOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9706073 49,999
~1.5d		 Tauranga 26 Apr (Day 57) 1 May (Day +62) — En route VF link
8.3m PARTIAL — en route		 Departed Brisbane 26 Apr. VF ETA 1 May (Day 62). Draught 8.3m = PARTIALLY LADEN (~75% est, supply reduced ~1.5d). Origin: Brisbane, Australia (Ampol Lytton refinery). NZTW TGA schedule said 4/5 but VF overrules. IMO 9706073. Flag Singapore. DWT 49,999. AIS 32h old.
Sea Orca NEWCrude Oil Tanker · IMO 1025576 113,659
4.5d		 Marsden Point 25 Apr (Day 56) 13 May (Day +74) — En route VF link
13.6m fully loaded, en route		 NEW — LR2 crude tanker. Largest vessel in pipeline. Departed Singapore Anch 25 Apr (Day 56). VF ETA 13 May (Day 74). Draught 13.6m (fully loaded). Speed 12.6kn. Position: Indonesia (37h old). MMSI 241961000. Flag Greece. Built 2026. 249m LOA. Fuelwatch confirms, origin Pengerang/Singapore. +4.5d national supply.
STI Virtus NEWOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9686699 49,990
2.0d		 Tauranga 27 Apr (Day 58) 14 May (Day +75) — En route VF link
11.9m loaded, en route		 NEW — Departed Pengerang Anch, Malaysia 27 Apr (Day 58). VF ETA 14 May (Day 75). NZTW said 19/5 = wrong, VF says 14/5. Draught 11.9m (loaded). Speed 10.8kn. MMSI 538005171. Flag Marshall Islands. Built 2014. 183m LOA. +2.0d supply.
Esteem Discovery WATCHOil/Chemical Tanker 49,999
~2.0d		 Lyttelton (if sails) — ~16 May (Day +77) — Watch —
— not departed		 WATCH — not yet departed. In Singapore. AIS destination set to Lyttelton. Fuelwatch ETA 16 May (Day 77). NZTW noted 27 Apr. Will confirm once departure detected. DWT 49,999. +2.0d supply if sails.
Silver PhilippaOil/Chemical Tanker · IMO 9692296 49,746
~1.5d		 Timaru (departed NZ) — Departed NZ → Nouméa — Departed NZ MT link
— departed		 Discharged partial cargo Timaru Day 13–18 (draught 9.9→8.7m). In MBIE Day 15 baseline. Departed NZ.
2. Pipeline health — departure cadence & visibility
Departure Gap
1 day
Days since last confirmed NZ-bound departure from a refinery port
Last departure: STI Virtus (Day 58, Pengerang, Malaysia). Gap BROKEN. Sea Orca departed Day 56 (Singapore), STI Virtus Day 58 (Pengerang). Two departures in 3 days. Pipeline extends to Day 75 (14 May). Gap: Day 59 minus Day 58 = 1d.
● ≤4d   ● 5–7d   ● >7d
Pipeline Horizon
16 days
Last confirmed arrival (Day 75) minus today (Day 59)
Visibility ends: 14 May 2026 (STI Virtus Tauranga). Pipeline extended 6 days with 2 new departures from Singapore/Malaysia. Esteem Discovery (Day 77, watch) would extend further if confirmed.
● ≥14d   ● 10–13d   ● <10d
Post-Window Cover
8 vessels
Confirmed vessels arriving after Day 59: Grand Winner 3 at anchor (dock Day 61), STI Opera (Day 62), Esteem Endeavor (Day 62), Hafnia Petrel (Day 62, partial), Gem Emerald (Day 69), Sea Orca (Day 74), STI Virtus (Day 75). Plus Esteem Discovery (Day 77, watch).
Coverage extends to Day 75 with 7 confirmed vessels post-today plus 1 watch.
● ≥2   ● 1   ● 0
Est. departure Vessel Origin port DWT Supply Gap Source
~2 Mar (Day 2) Hafnia Falcon Singapore 50,000 2.0d — AIS dest NZMAP
~4 Mar (Day 4) Pacific Crystal Singapore 50,000 2.0d 2d AIS dest NZ LYT
~4 Mar (Day 4) Torm Herdis Singapore 115,000 4.6d 0d AIS dest NZMAP
~6 Mar (Day 6) Torm Diana Yeosu, Korea 50,000 2.0d 2d Port of Tauranga
~6 Mar (Day 6) Magnolia Express Daesan, South Korea 50,000 2.0d 0d PrimePort Timaru
~8 Mar (Day 8) Diamond Express Yeosu, Korea 46,000 1.8d 2d Port of Tauranga
~10 Mar (Day 10) Oak Express Daesan, South Korea 46,000 1.9d 2d Port of Tauranga
12 Mar (Day 12) Front Pollux Daesan, South Korea 110,000 4.4d 5d MT confirmed actual departure 12 Mar
7 Mar (Day 7) STI Magic Anegasaki, Japan 48,000 1.9d 0d MT confirmed actual departure 7 Mar (was est. ~13 Mar)
17 Mar (Day 17) CS Fujairah Singapore ~50,000 2.0d 5d MT AIS confirmed. Dest NZLYT. Found 23 Mar via AIS search — not in NZ port schedules
20 Mar (Day 20) AMASYA Busan, South Korea ~50,000 2.0d 3d MT AIS confirmed. Dest NZWLG. Found 23 Mar via AIS search — not in NZ port schedules
22 Mar (Day 22) Redwood Mariner Anegasaki, Japan 50,275 2.0d 2d NZ Tanker Watch Bluesky confirmed. Dest NZTAU. Found 24 Mar via Bluesky
23 Mar (Day 23) Oriental Aquamarine Daesan, South Korea 49,883 2.0d 1d NZ Tanker Watch Bluesky confirmed. Dest NZLYT → NZTAU (changed 27 Mar). Found 24 Mar via Bluesky
24 Mar (Day 24) Chang Hang Kai Tuo Singapore 45,790 1.8d 0d NZ Tanker Watch Bluesky confirmed. Dest NZMAP. Found 24 Mar via Bluesky
23 Mar (Day 23) Hafnia Expedite Singapore 74,634 3.0d 0d VesselFinder AIS confirmed. Dest NZMAP. Found via AIS 24 Mar. Confirmed departure Day 23.
✓ Departure gap collapsed to 0 days (Day 24). Four new vessels confirmed via NZ Tanker Watch Bluesky: Redwood Mariner (Day 22), Oriental Aquamarine (Day 23), Chang Hang Kai Tuo + Hafnia Expedite (Day 24).
Days 25–29: No new NZ-bound departures detected. Departure gap grows to 7 days.
30 Mar (Day 30) Pacific Violet Singapore 49,999 2.0d 6d NZ Tanker Watch Bluesky confirmed. Dest NZMAP. Departed 29 Mar 21:57 UTC. IMO 9994577.
30 Mar (Day 30) Chang Hang Hong Tu Singapore 45,765 1.8d 0d NZ Tanker Watch Bluesky confirmed. Dest NZLYT. Departed 30 Mar 05:09 UTC. IMO 9379777.
4 Apr (Day 35) CC Ningbo Kashima, Japan 50,531 2.0d — RESOLVED: Departed Kashima ~4 Apr, confirmed Tauranga-bound (revised from unconfirmed Japan destination). Draught 10.4m (loaded). IMO 1083205.
26 Mar (Day 26) Grand Winner 3 Ulsan, S.Korea 50,301 2.0d 5d VesselFinder AIS confirmed. Dest NZWLG. Found 4 Apr via AIS search. IMO 9906702.
3 Apr (Day 34) Forever Glory Daesan, S.Korea 49,969 2.0d 0d AIS confirmed. Dest NZTAU. Found 4 Apr via AIS. IMO 9796901.
25 Mar (Day 25) TP Endurance [NEW 11 Apr] Onsan, S.Korea 49,999 2.0d — VF AIS confirmed. Dest NZTAU. Found 11 Apr scrape. IMO 9895197. Flag Norway.
1 Apr (Day 32) STI Sanctity [NEW 11 Apr] Gwangyang, S.Korea 109,999 4.4d — VF AIS confirmed ATD 1 Apr. NZ TW confirmed departure ~8 Apr. Dest NZMAP. IMO 9719707. Flag Marshall Islands. 250m LOA.
15 Apr (Day 46) STI Opera [NEW 16 Apr] Merak, Singapore ~50,000 2.0d 11d NZTW Bluesky 15 Apr: "NEW TANKER ENROUTE. STI Opera." Fuelwatch.nz confirmed. Dest Marsden Pt. Post-ceasefire first departure.
15 Apr (Day 46) Esteem Endeavor [NEW 16 Apr] Singapore ~50,000 2.0d 0d NZTW Bluesky 15 Apr: "NEW TANKER ENROUTE. Esteem Endeavor." Fuelwatch.nz confirmed. Dest Lyttelton. Second post-ceasefire departure.
21 Apr (Day 52) Gem Emerald [NEW 23 Apr] Tanjung Langsat, Malaysia 49,999 2.0d 6d VF AIS confirmed. NZTW confirmed 22 Apr. Dest Tauranga. IMO 1022677. Flag Marshall Islands. Built 2025. Third post-ceasefire departure.
25 Apr (Day 56) Sea Orca [NEW 28 Apr] Singapore 113,659 4.5d 4d VF AIS confirmed. LR2 crude tanker. Dest Marsden Pt. ETA 13 May (Day 74). Likely loaded at Pengerang (RAPID refinery), brief Singapore anchorage before sailing. Fourth post-ceasefire departure.
26 Apr (Day 57) Hafnia Petrel [NEW 28 Apr] Brisbane, Australia 49,990 1.5d 1d VF AIS confirmed. MR2 tanker. Dest Tauranga. ETA 1 May (Day 62). PARTIALLY LADEN — draught 8.3m vs ~12m loaded. Supply downgraded from 2.0d to 1.5d. Fifth post-ceasefire departure.
27 Apr (Day 58) STI Virtus [NEW 28 Apr] Pengerang, Malaysia 49,990 2.0d 1d VF AIS confirmed. MR2 Chem/Oil tanker. Dest Tauranga. ETA 14 May (Day 75). Departed Pengerang 27 Apr. Sixth post-ceasefire departure.
✓ Departure gap: 1 day (Day 58 minus Day 57). Pipeline accelerating. Three new departures in 3 days (Days 56–58). Six post-ceasefire departures total. Pipeline visibility to Day 75 (14 May).
How to read this section: Departure dates are estimated by subtracting 17-day transit time from the live arrival ETA at the first NZ port. The Departure Gap is the leading indicator — it gives up to 17 days advance warning of a supply interruption. In normal operations, NZ receives roughly 1 tanker departure every 2–3 days from Korean, Singaporean, or Japanese refineries. A gap exceeding 7 days means a "hole" in the pipeline that will manifest as a stock drawdown ~17 days later.

Silver Philippa is excluded from this table because she originated from Pago Pago (a fuel hub/storage, not a refinery port) and represents redistribution rather than fresh refinery output.

Key ports to monitor for new departures: Yeosu, Daesan, Ulsan (Korea) · Singapore/Jurong · Anegasaki, Chiba, Sakai (Japan).

To update: When a new vessel appears on port schedules or AIS with an NZ destination, add it to the departure log, recalculate the departure gap, and update all three metric cards.
3. New intelligence from port data

Multi-port discharge routes

Port of Tauranga schedule reveals that tankers are not discharging at a single port. They follow multi-port routes around New Zealand, distributing product across terminals:

VesselRoute (origin → NZ ports)
Hafnia Falcon Singapore → Marsden Pt (19 Mar discharging) → Singapore (return voyage)
Torm Diana Yeosu 🇰🇷 → Tauranga (docked 25 Mar, departed 29 Mar) → Wellington
Diamond Express Yeosu 🇰🇷 → Tauranga (23 Mar) → Nelson (departed TGA 25 Mar) → Wellington → Tauranga (31 Mar) → Nelson
Oak Express Daesan 🇰🇷 → Napier (23 Mar) → New Plymouth (25 Mar) → Wellington → Tauranga (02 Apr) → Wellington → New Plymouth
STI Magic Chiba 🇯🇵 → New Plymouth (24 Mar) → Wellington (25 Mar, depart 26 Mar) → Napier (30 Mar) → Tauranga (01 Apr)
Pacific Crystal Geelong 🇦🇺 → Lyttelton → Bluff → Dunedin (DISCHARGED. Multi-port complete.)
Magnolia Express Yeosu 🇰🇷 → Lyttelton (22 Mar) → Timaru → Pt Otago → Nelson (completed coastal)
Model implication: The model treats each vessel as discharging at a single NZ port instantaneously. In reality, discharge is distributed across multiple ports over 2–4 days. This means onshore stock recovery is more gradual than the model shows — fuel takes time to physically move through the domestic distribution network. The model's "days of supply" landing on a single day is slightly optimistic.

Origin port confirmation

Port of Tauranga data confirms origin ports for 4 of 5 Tauranga-bound tankers. Three are from South Korean ports (Yeosu, Daesan), one from Japan. This is consistent with the model's import share assumptions (Korea 48%, Singapore 33%). The Korean origin of most confirmed cargoes makes the South Korea throughput assumption (E1) the most critical variable in the model.

Previously unconfirmed vessels — now confirmed NZ-bound

Both previously unconfirmed vessels are now confirmed. Port scrapes on 17 Mar established that Pacific Crystal and Magnolia Express are both in NZ waters and scheduled at South Island fuel terminals. This eliminates the 5.0-day supply gap risk identified in the earlier assessment.
VesselFindingSource
Pacific Crystal Arrives Port Otago Oil Jetty 21 Mar 18:15. Currently at Bluff (trade: OIL). Model had 20 Mar — only +1 day delta. Port Otago shipping schedule
Magnolia Express Arrives PrimePort Timaru 23 Mar 06:30, then Dunedin 25 Mar, then Nelson. Model had 24 Mar at Port Otago — actually arriving 1 day early at Timaru. PrimePort Timaru + Port Otago

Silver Philippa — discharged, departed

Silver Philippa discharged a partial cargo at Timaru between ~Day 13–18 (draught 9.9→8.7m). Her supply is captured in the MBIE Day 15 onshore baseline. Origin: Pago Pago (redistribution hub). Next destination: Nouméa. No longer tracked as on-water supply.
4. Arrival timeline (live ETAs)
23 Apr Today — Model Day 54. MBIE rebased to Day 50 (19 Apr): MSO recovery — all 3 fuels at/above in-country MSO (P 29.5, D 21.0, J 26.1). On-water declining as vessels arrive (P 21.7, D 20.6, J 21.3). 5 arrivals since Day 47: Pacific Violet (Marsden Pt Day 50), Chang Hang Hong Tu (Lyttelton Day 51), CC Ningbo (Tauranga Day 52, coastal), Forever Glory (Tauranga Day 53), STI Sanctity (arriving today Day 54). Grand Winner 3 at anchor Wellington — CentrePort dock Day 61. Gem Emerald (NEW) departed Tanjung Langsat, Malaysia Day 52, ETA Tauranga Day 69. STI Opera + Esteem Endeavor draught confirmed (11.9m/11.8m — full cargo). Departure gap: 2d. 26 vessels tracked, 60.6d total supply. Pipeline extends through Day 69 (8 May). Kuwait 2nd force majeure (crude+refined). US seized Tifani tanker (INDOPACOM). Restoration lag revised 45d → 75d.
16 Apr Model Day 47. MBIE rebased to Day 43 (12 Apr): all 3 fuels below in-country MSO (P 25.3, D 20.8, J 21.3) but total incl on-water healthy. 4 arrivals since Day 42. Pacific Violet + Grand Winner 3 arriving Day 47. Post-ceasefire: STI Opera + Esteem Endeavor departed Day 46. Departure gap collapsed 7d → 1d. 25 vessels, 58.6d supply. Pipeline to Day 62.
11 Apr Model Day 42. MBIE rebased to Day 36. AMASYA + Redwood Mariner ARRIVED. Ocean Breeze arrived Timaru (partial ~50%). Hafnia Expedite + CHKT DELAYED by Ex TC Vaianu (holding Cape Reinga). 3 new vessels: TP Endurance (Day 45), STI Sanctity (Day 54), Ocean Breeze (Day 41). Departure gap widening (7d). 23 vessels, 52.6d supply.
4 Apr Model Day 35. MBIE rebased to Day 29. CS Fujairah ARRIVED Lyttelton (3 Apr). CC Ningbo RESOLVED: confirmed Tauranga-bound (21 Apr, Day 52). Departure gap 4d → 0d. Grand Winner 3 (Ulsan Day 26) + Forever Glory (Daesan Day 34). 20 vessels, 47.2d supply.
3 Apr Model Day 34. CS Fujairah ARRIVING Lyttelton. ⚠ CC Ningbo AIS showed Kashima Japan. Departure gap 4 days. 18 vessels, 43.2d supply.
31 Mar Model Day 31. MBIE rebased to Day 25. Departure gap collapsed: 7d → 1d. Front Pollux ARRIVED Marsden Pt 30 Mar. CC Ningbo promoted to tracked (loading at Kawasaki). Pipeline extended to Day 53.
19 Mar Hafnia Falcon → Marsden Pt (2.0d supply) ✓ DISCHARGED. Coastal: Marsden Pt→TGA→Wellington→Bluff (ETA 31 Mar 20:00). Draught 8.6m (light).
19 Mar Torm Diana → Tauranga anchorage ✓ Docked 25 Mar. DEPARTED TGA 29 Mar 01:16 → Wellington. Discharged.
21 Mar Torm Herdis → Marsden Pt (4.6d supply) ✓ DISCHARGED. DEPARTED Marsden Pt 25 Mar.
22 Mar Magnolia Express → Lyttelton (2.0d supply) ✓ Completed coastal: Lyttelton→Timaru→Pt Otago→Nelson. Done.
22 Mar Pacific Crystal → Port Otago Oil Jetty ✓ DISCHARGED Lyttelton + Bluff + Dunedin. Multi-port complete.
23 Mar Oak Express → Napier (1.9d supply) ✓ ARRIVED. Multi-port: Napier→NPL→Wellington. En route TGA (port sched 03 Apr 21:15).
24 Mar STI Magic → New Plymouth (1.9d supply) ✓ ARRIVED. Multi-port: NPL→Wgtn→Napier. En route TGA (port sched 02 Apr 14:00).
23 Mar Diamond Express → Tauranga (1.8d supply) ✓ ARRIVED. Coastal: TGA→Nelson→Wgtn. En route TGA (port sched 01 Apr 13:30).
30 Mar Front Pollux → Marsden Pt (4.4d supply) ✓ ARRIVED 30 Mar PM. IN PORT. Northport Jetty 1, ETD 02 Apr 22:00. From Daesan.
3 Apr CS Fujairah → Lyttelton (2.0d supply) — ARRIVING TODAY. VF ETA 3 Apr 16:00, Lyttelton port 17:10, ETD 05 Apr 01:00. DWT 50,629.
7 Apr AMASYA → Wellington (2.0d supply) — En route. VF ETA 7 Apr 22:00 (AIS stale 13d). Departed Busan 20 Mar.
8 Apr Redwood Mariner → Tauranga (2.0d supply) — En route. VF ETA 8 Apr 15:01. Now on TGA port schedule: 08 Apr 18:03. Departed Anegasaki Japan 22 Mar.
9 Apr Hafnia Expedite → Marsden Point (3.0d supply) — En route. VF ETA 8 Apr 21:00. Northport: 09 Apr 05:00, Jetty 1, ETD 11 Apr. Speed 13.2kn. IMO 9735593.
9 Apr Chang Hang Kai Tuo → Marsden Point (1.8d supply) — En route. VF ETA 9 Apr 17:00 (revised 1d earlier). From Pengerang, Malaysia. IMO 9379806.
10 Apr Oriental Aquamarine → Tauranga (2.0d supply) — En route. VF ETA 10 Apr 22:00 (AIS stale 10d). Departed Daesan Korea (Day 23). AIS dest Tauranga.
15 Apr Pacific Violet → Marsden Pt (2.0d supply) — Departed Singapore 29 Mar (Day 30). VF ETA 15 Apr 20:00. Northport: 16 Apr 08:00, Jetty 2, ETD 18 Apr. IMO 9994577. Draught 11.7m.
17 Apr Chang Hang Hong Tu → Lyttelton (1.8d supply) — Departed Singapore 30 Mar (Day 30). VF ETA 17 Apr 13:00. AIS 20h old. IMO 9379777. Draught 11.5m.
21 Apr CC Ningbo → Tauranga (2.0d supply) — RESOLVED Day 35: confirmed Tauranga-bound (revised from earlier unconfirmed Japan destination). Departed Kashima ~4 Apr. Draught 10.4m (loaded). VF ETA 21 Apr (Day 52). IMO 1083205.
5. Model impact assessment — Day 54 deltas vs baseline
Delta vs baselineSupply impactModel adjustment
✓ MSO recovery — all fuels at/above in-country MSO P 29.5 / D 21.0 / J 26.1 MBIE Day 50 rebase (published 22 Apr): petrol 29.5d (>28 MSO), diesel 21.0d (=21 MSO, exactly at line), jet 26.1d (>24 MSO). Recovered from all-below at Day 43. Total incl on-water declining (P 51.2 / D 41.6 / J 47.4) as vessels arrive and discharge onshore. On-water draining: P 21.7 (was 31.0), D 20.6 (was 24.6), J 21.3 (was 25.7).
Pipeline extended to Day 69 (8 May) +2.0d from Gem Emerald NEW departure: Gem Emerald (49,999 DWT) departed Tanjung Langsat, Malaysia Day 52 (21 Apr). VF ETA Tauranga 8 May (Day 69). NZTW confirmed 22 Apr. 26 vessels total, pipeline extends 7 days beyond previous window. Departure gap: 2 days (Day 54 minus Day 52).
5 arrivals confirmed Day 47→54 60.6d total supply (26 vessels) Pacific Violet (Marsden Pt Day 50), Chang Hang Hong Tu (Lyttelton Day 51), CC Ningbo (Tauranga Day 52, coastal to Wellington), Forever Glory (Tauranga Day 53), STI Sanctity arriving TODAY (Marsden Pt Day 54). All confirmed via VF + NZTW. ETAs within 0–3d of model predictions.
Grand Winner 3 discharge delayed to Day 61 2.0d supply delayed, not lost Grand Winner 3 arrived NZ waters Day 47 (on time) but CentrePort Wellington dock not until 30 Apr (Day 61). At anchor off Marlborough/Nelson since 16 Apr. Fully laden (11.3m draught). Supply counted by MBIE in EEZ on-water, not yet in-country. 14-day anchor delay is unusual.
⚠ Kuwait 2nd force majeure + US Tifani seizure Upstream crude risk escalating Kuwait declared force majeure on crude AND refined products (20 Apr). US seized Iran-linked tanker Tifani in Indian Ocean between Sri Lanka and Indonesia (21 Apr) — enforcement extends to INDOPACOM. Trump extended ceasefire but blockade remains. IRGC fired on Hormuz transit ships (19 Apr per NZTW). Hormuz at ~5 passages/day vs 60 pre-conflict. Ceasefire ≠ open strait validated.
Diesel at MSO line — tightest fuel shifts 21.0d vs 21d MSO (zero margin) Diesel now the tightest fuel at exactly the MSO threshold with zero buffer. Jet recovered strongly (+4.8d from Day 43). Diesel on-water only 20.6d (down from 24.6d) as arrivals have been product-heavy not diesel-heavy. MBIE notes “a ship currently loading diesel in Singapore” heading to NZ shortly.
Key situation — Day 54. MSO recovery confirmed: all three fuels at or above in-country MSO for the first time since Day 43 breach. Pipeline extended to Day 69 (8 May) with Gem Emerald new departure. 5 arrivals confirmed since last update; STI Sanctity arriving today as the first LR2 crude tanker in 24 days (109,999 DWT). Grand Winner 3 discharge delayed to Day 61 (CentrePort capacity). Geopolitical risk escalating: Kuwait 2nd force majeure, US tanker seizure in Indian Ocean, IRGC fired on Hormuz transit ships. Blockade enforcement now extends beyond Gulf region. Total supply declining as on-water drains into in-country stock. Next monitoring focus: (a) TP Endurance discharge 24 Apr, (b) MBIE Day 53 release (expected ~27 Apr), (c) further post-ceasefire departures from Singapore/Korea, (d) Grand Winner 3 berth confirmation.
6. Draught analysis — cargo loading confirmation

AIS-reported draught vs typical ballast (empty) draught confirms whether each vessel is carrying cargo. A vessel sitting well above its ballast waterline is loaded. Data from VesselFinder and MarineTraffic as at 23 April 2026 (Day 54). Table shows active en-route vessels and recent arrivals (Day 50+).

En-route & arriving

Vessel Class DWT Draught Ballast Loaded Assessment Origin
STI Sanctity LR2 109,999 12.5m 7–8m 13–15m Full cargo Gwangyang, S.Korea (Day 32)
STI Opera MR2 49,990 11.9m 6–7m 11–12m Full cargo Merak, Singapore (Day 46)
Esteem Endeavor MR2 49,999 11.8m 6–7m 11–12m Full cargo Singapore (Day 46)
Gem Emerald [NEW] MR2 49,999 11.9m 6–7m 11–12m Full cargo Tanjung Langsat, Malaysia (Day 52)

Recently arrived (Day 50–54) & at anchor

Vessel Class DWT Draught Ballast Loaded Assessment Origin
Pacific Violet MR2 49,999 11.2m 6–7m 11–12m Full — arrived Singapore (Day 30)
Chang Hang Hong Tu MR2 45,765 11.5m 6–7m 11–12m Full — arrived Singapore (Day 30)
CC Ningbo MR2 50,531 10.4m 6–7m 11–12m Loaded ~85% — arrived Kashima, Japan (Day 35)
Forever Glory MR2 49,969 10.5m 6–7m 11–12m Full — arrived Daesan, S.Korea (Day 34)
Grand Winner 3 MR2 50,301 11.4m 6–7m 11–12m Full — at anchor Wgtn Ulsan, S.Korea (Day 26)
How to read this table: A tanker at ballast draught (6–8m) is empty. A tanker near its loaded draught (11–15m depending on class) is loaded. All 4 en-route vessels show loaded waterline, confirming full cargoes. All 5 recent arrivals confirmed full on arrival.

Grand Winner 3 (at anchor): In NZ waters since Day 47 but CentrePort berth not available until Day 61 (30 Apr). Full cargo confirmed (11.4m draught) but discharge delayed. Supply contribution deferred ~14 days.

STI Opera + Esteem Endeavor: AIS draught now confirmed (11.9m and 11.8m respectively) — both at full cargo waterline. Departed Day 46 from Merak/Singapore.

Gem Emerald: New vessel (built 2025). Departed Tanjung Langsat, Malaysia Day 52. AIS draught 11.9m confirms full cargo. Third post-ceasefire departure.

Vessel class key: MR1 = Medium Range 1 (25–45k DWT). MR2 = Medium Range 2 (45–55k DWT). LR2 = Long Range 2 (80–120k DWT). Ballast/loaded draught ranges are approximate industry norms for each class.
7. Source port monitor — refinery departure tracking
Purpose: Track outgoing tanker traffic from NZ's source refinery ports. A drop in product tanker departures is an early signal of supply disruption — visible before any NZ-specific data changes. MR2-class product tankers (45–55k DWT) are the vessels that serve the NZ route.
Korean Refineries
Active
Yeosu (GS Caltex 800k bpd) & Daesan (Hyundai Oilbank 520k bpd)
Multiple crude VLCCs in port = feedstock flowing. MR2 product tankers arriving for loading.
NZ share: 42% · 7 confirmed NZ vessels from South Korean ports
Singapore / Malaysia Refineries
Accelerating
Jurong Island (1.5M bpd) + Pengerang RAPID (300k bpd). 3 departures Days 46–58.
Sea Orca (LR2 crude), STI Virtus (MR2), Esteem Discovery (MR2, watch). Pipeline extending.
NZ share: 42% · 9 confirmed NZ vessels from Singapore/Malaysia (was 6)
Australia (Brisbane / Geelong)
1 vessel
Hafnia Petrel departed Brisbane Day 57 → Tauranga Day 62. Partially laden (draught 8.3m, ~1.5d supply).
Geelong (Viva Energy 120k bpd) still unconfirmed for NZ shipments.
NZ share: 6% · 1 confirmed NZ vessel from Australia (Hafnia Petrel)
Source port Country Refinery VF traffic (30d) Tankers in port MR2 product tankers observed NZ vessels confirmed
Yeosu 🇰🇷 S.Korea GS Caltex 800k bpd 73 CAESAR (318k VLCC), SPAIN B (299k VLCC), PROTEUS HARVONNE (110k LR2), PROTEUS TRACY (110k LR2), SEAWAYS BONITA (74k), HAFNIA EXCELSIOR (75k) Korea Venus (50k), Harmony Chemist (50k), Ayame (50k), Sunshine Express (50k) — all arriving 18 Mar for loading Torm Diana, Diamond Express, Forever Cordiality (historical)
Daesan 🇰🇷 S.Korea Hyundai Oilbank 520k bpd 37 ITHAKI (300k VLCC), NORDIC HUNTER (157k), TORM GEMMA (119k LR2), AL KHTAM (115k), NAVIG8 PRECISION (110k LR2) Oriental Aquamarine (50k) — departed 23 Mar for NZ (confirmed). 308 Hyodong Chemi (4k coastal) Magnolia Express, Oak Express, Front Pollux, Oriental Aquamarine
Singapore 🇸🇬 Singapore Jurong Island 1.5M bpd 1,353 Volume too high for bulk monitoring. Use MT to check known NZ-route vessels (Hafnia, Torm, STI/Scorpio fleets) individually for NZ AIS destinations. Hafnia Falcon, Pacific Crystal, Torm Herdis, CS Fujairah, Chang Hang Kai Tuo, Hafnia Expedite, Pacific Violet, Chang Hang Hong Tu, STI Opera (Day 46), Esteem Endeavor (Day 46), Sea Orca (Day 56, LR2 crude), Esteem Discovery (watch, not departed)
Pengerang / Tanjung Langsat 🇲🇾 Malaysia Petronas RAPID 300k bpd + Tanjung Langsat terminal TBD Emerging NZ source port. 2 confirmed departures: Gem Emerald (Tanjung Langsat Day 52), STI Virtus (Pengerang Day 58). Sea Orca likely loaded here before Singapore anchorage. Gem Emerald (Day 52), STI Virtus (Day 58), Sea Orca (loaded here, departed via Singapore Day 56)
Brisbane 🇦🇺 Australia Ampol Lytton 109k bpd TBD Hafnia Petrel departed Day 57 for Tauranga. Partially laden (draught 8.3m, ~1.5d supply). Short transit ~5 days. Hafnia Petrel (Day 57)
Busan 🇰🇷 S.Korea SK Energy / S-Oil TBD Not yet scraped. Found AMASYA via direct MT vessel search — departures not visible in NZ port schedules at this range. AMASYA
Geelong 🇦🇺 Australia Viva Energy 120k bpd 11 GREEN AZURE (115k crude import), PAROS STAR (45k MR2 — loading?) Paros Star (45k, in port since 17 Mar), Sea Quest (50k, arriving 20 Mar), Pacific Topaz (113k crude, arriving 22 Mar) None confirmed — MBIE says 12% from Australia
Anegasaki 🇯🇵 Japan ENEOS Chiba complex TBD Not yet scraped. Check via MarineTraffic individual vessel pages. STI Magic, Redwood Mariner
Kawasaki 🇯🇵 Japan ENEOS Kawasaki complex TBD Not yet scraped. CC Ningbo currently loading at Kawasaki refinery berth. CC Ningbo
Mizushima 🇯🇵 Japan ENEOS 205k bpd TBD Not yet scraped. Historical NZ vessel: Capilano Sun. Capilano Sun (historical)
Daily monitoring checklist (source ports):

Tier 1 — DAILY (Korean ports via VesselFinder):
• Yeosu departures — count MR2+ tanker departures (>40k DWT). Check destinations for NZ port codes (NZMAP, NZTGA, NZLYT, NZBLU, NZNSN, NZNPE, NZWLG, NZTIU, NZPOE).
• Daesan departures — same check. Oriental Aquamarine confirmed departed 23 Mar for Tauranga (was Lyttelton).

Tier 2 — EVERY 2–3 DAYS:
• Geelong departures — any product tanker departure.
• Singapore — use VesselFinder/MarineTraffic to search known NZ-route vessel names: Hafnia fleet, Torm fleet, STI/Scorpio fleet, Diamond/Oak/Magnolia Express. Check AIS destination for NZ codes.
• Pengerang / Tanjung Langsat (Malaysia) — emerging source. 3 vessels confirmed (Gem Emerald, STI Virtus, Sea Orca). Monitor for new MR2 departures with NZ destinations.
• Ulsan — total tanker departure count as Korean refinery output proxy.

Tier 3 — WEEKLY:
• Anegasaki / Mizushima (Japan) — check for NZ-bound product tankers.

NZ port codes for AIS destination matching: NZMAP (Marsden Pt) · NZTGA (Tauranga) · NZLYT (Lyttelton) · NZBLU (Bluff) · NZNSN (Nelson) · NZNPE (Napier) · NZWLG (Wellington) · NZTIU (Timaru) · NZPOE (Port Otago)

Disruption signals:
🔴 RED: Korean MR2 departures drop >50% from baseline · Zero NZ-dest departures from Korea for >7d · Product tankers departing in ballast (empty)
🟡 AMBER: Korean departures down 20–50% · MR2 tankers sitting idle at refinery berths · Crude tanker arrivals declining (upstream supply cut)
🟢 POSITIVE: New NZ-dest departure detected · Korean departure rates stable or recovering · Australian/Japanese tankers with NZ destinations

Upstream crude supply — Asian refinery feedstock (refreshed 23 April 2026 / Day 54)

Critical finding (Day 47 refresh): The ceasefire (7 Apr) has NOT restored crude flow through Hormuz. Transits remain 90% below pre-crisis levels. US Navy blockade on Iranian ports remains active. VLCCs are making U-turns; access is selective, not open navigation. The few VLCCs that have transited are heading to China, Malaysia, Thailand — not Korea or Japan. No loaded VLCC has been detected arriving at Korean refinery ports since the ceasefire.

Korean refineries: GS Caltex cut runs from 800k to 675k bpd. Some refiners reviewing 30% utilisation (near-shutdown). Korea has not received ME crude since 20 Mar. Government secured 273M bbl non-Hormuz crude through year-end: 250M Saudi (via Yanbu/Red Sea), 18M Kazakhstan, 5M Oman. 50M bbl for Apr-May via Saudi Red Sea ports.

Japanese refineries: Utilisation dropped to 67.7% (week to 4 Apr), down from 72.5% prior week, pre-crisis >80%. Japan 95% ME-dependent. Strategic reserves released.

IEA (14 Apr): Asian refineries cut runs by ~6 mb/d to 77.2 mb/d. Hormuz loadings ~3.8 mb/d vs >20 mb/d pre-crisis. Global supply disruption 10.1 mb/d. Asian crude stocks down 31M bbl. IEA base case: gradual recovery from May, normalisation through Q3 2026.

Model implication: Restoration lag assumption raised 45d → 75d (Day 47 update) to reflect non-Hormuz crude procurement dynamics. Korean refineries are running on alternative crude (Saudi Yanbu, Kazakh, Omani medium sour) — a different supply chain with slower ramp and lower distillate/jet yield. The 2 new NZ-bound departures (STI Opera, Esteem Endeavor) are likely from pre-positioned non-Hormuz crude, not from restored ME flow. Product tanker output from Korea/Singapore will recover gradually rather than snap back. NZ pipeline beyond Day 62 remains uncertain. Even the 75d assumption may prove optimistic if the first VLCC-to-Korea signal is delayed beyond Day 60.
VesselDWTClassTransit dateOrigin / cargoDestinationFlagStatus / notes
HORMUZ POST-CEASEFIRE TRANSITS (7 Apr – 16 Apr) — crude tankers only
Serifos~300kVLCC10 AprSaudi Arabia / UAE crude (pre-crisis loading)Malaysia (Malacca Port, ETA 21 Apr)LiberiaChartered by Thai PTT. Exited via trial anchorage bypassing Larak Island.
Cospearl Lake~300kVLCC11 AprIraqi crudeChina (Zhoushan, ETA 1 May)ChinaLaden with Iraqi oil.
He Rong Hai~300kVLCC11 AprSaudi crudeChina (unclear port)ChinaChartered by Unipec (Sinopec trading arm).
Ocean Thunder~300kVLCC5 Apr1M bbl Basrah Heavy (Iraq)Malaysia (Pengerang, ETA 18 Apr)—Petronas chartered. Pre-ceasefire transit.
Pola~160kSuezmaxearly Apr1M bbl Khafji crude (Saudi/Kuwait)Thailand + Singapore—Already discharged.
Agios Fanourios I~300kVLCC15 AprINBOUND — heading to Iraq to load Basra crudeVietnam (post-loading)MaltaEntered Gulf on 2nd attempt. Loading, not discharge.
Shalamar~80kAframax12 AprINBOUND — heading to UAE to load Das crudePakistanPakistanEntering Gulf to load.
⚠ Zero VLCCs heading to South Korea or Japan detected since ceasefire. All loaded crude heading to China, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam. Korean + Japanese refineries are NOT receiving restored ME crude via Hormuz.
Source: Reuters Factbox 15 Apr 2026, Kpler data, CNBC, Al Jazeera, Windward maritime intelligence. Transit count: ~17 vessels/day (all types) vs >100/day pre-crisis = 90% below normal. Access is selective and unstable. US Navy blockade on Iranian ports active since 12 Apr.
Model implication summary — Day 47: The NZ product pipeline depends on two questions: (1) Can Korean/Singapore refineries sustain reduced-rate output on non-Hormuz crude? (2) When does Hormuz normalise enough for full-rate operations? IEA base case: gradual recovery from May, normalisation Q3 2026 (Day 90–120). Restoration lag assumption raised to 75 days (best case 60d, severe 120d). Even 75d may prove optimistic if the first loaded-VLCC-to-Korea signal is delayed beyond Day 60.

Monitoring stack:
• Hormuz transit count — hormuzstraitmonitor.com / Reuters factbox. Current ~17 vessels/day. Watch for sustained recovery >50/day.
• Japan METI weekly refinery utilisation — currently 67.7%. Recovery above 75% = crude flowing at scale.
• Korean crude arrivals — VF/MT port pages for Daesan, Yeosu, Ulsan, Onsan, Gwangyang. Distinguish Saudi Yanbu (Red Sea, non-Hormuz) vs ME Gulf (Hormuz-dependent).
• IEA Oil Market Report — monthly. Next: mid-May.
• Korea government crude procurement — Korea Herald, Seoul Economic Daily. 273M bbl secured through year-end.
▸ Archived: Korean port crude audit — Day 27 baseline snapshot (20-day-old, historical reference only)
VesselDWTClassPortOrigin / cargoArrivalDraughtStatus
DAESAN — 4 crude tankers in port (27 Mar)
ZAYNAH300,759VLCCDaesanJu’aymah, Saudi Arabia (ME)~late Feb13.1mPARTIALLY DISCHARGED — pre-crisis Saudi loading
PROTEUS JESSICA109,999SuezmaxDaesanIchthys Terminal, Australia (non-ME)13 Mar12.0mLIGHT CARGO — Australian condensate (non-Hormuz)
ITHAKI299,992VLCCDaesanDaesan (local move)9 Mar11.5mBALLAST — 18 days at anchor, empty
LIAN GUI HU72,822PanamaxDaesanNot yet checked——NEW — draught not yet checked
YEOSU — 2 crude tankers spotted (27 Mar)
ARAM317,713VLCCYeosuGwangyang → Fujairah/UAE/Qatar26 Mar10.9mBALLAST — arrived from ME, empty
VESUVIO297,638VLCCYeosuMina al Ahmadi, Kuwait (ME)25 Mar11.2mBALLAST — arrived from ME, empty
Departed since Day 19 audit: MAHARAH (US crude, discharged), VERY LUCKY (Saudi pre-Hormuz, discharged), TORM GEMMA (Oman), AL KHTAM, CSK JUBILEE, NAVIG8 PRECISION, CAESAR, SPAIN B. Pre-crisis crude buffer now largely consumed.
Still no visibility on: Ulsan (SK Energy + S-Oil, 1.5M bpd combined).
Day 27 vs Day 19 comparison: Original audit found 2 loaded + 7 empty. Day 27 refresh: 1 partially discharged (ZAYNAH), 1 light cargo (PROTEUS JESSICA Australian condensate), 4 empty. Pre-crisis buffer being consumed with no visible replacement at scale.

Draught interpretation: Loaded VLCC = 20–22m. Loaded Suezmax = 15–16m. Ballast = 9–12m. ZAYNAH at 13.1m = partially discharged. PROTEUS JESSICA at 12.0m = light condensate.

Why archived: Day 27 buffer status is now 20 days stale. Pre-crisis buffer (MAHARAH, VERY LUCKY, ZAYNAH) almost certainly fully consumed by Day 47. Korean government has since secured 273M bbl non-Hormuz crude (Saudi Yanbu 250M, Kazakh 18M, Omani 5M) — refineries running at reduced rates on alternative feedstock. Current crude flow reality is now captured in the Hormuz post-ceasefire transits table above.

Baseline scrape — 18 March 2026

PortScrape timeKey observationsMR2 product tankers
Yeosu 18 Mar 16:39 KST 250 ships in port, 73 expected 30d. 6 crude/product tankers in port (2 VLCCs = crude feedstock arriving). Recent departures all small coastal (<5k DWT). No MR2+ product tanker departures visible. 4 MR2 arriving today for loading: Korea Venus, Harmony Chemist, Ayame, Sunshine Express (all ~50k DWT). Active loading pipeline.
Daesan 18 Mar 16:45 KST 100 ships in port, 37 expected 30d. 5 crude tankers in port (ITHAKI 300k VLCC + 4 LR2s). Recent departures small vessels only. MAHARAH (299k VLCC) arriving tonight = more crude feedstock. Oriental Aquamarine (50k MR2) arrived 14:41 today. This is an NZ-class product tanker — monitor for departure destination.
Geelong 18 Mar 18:46 AEDT 28 ships in port, 11 expected 30d. Very low volume. GREEN AZURE (115k) bringing crude in. No tanker departures in recent history (only sailing vessels departing). Paros Star (45k MR2, brand new 2026) in port since 17 Mar. Sea Quest (50k MR2) arriving 20 Mar. Pacific Topaz (113k crude) arriving 22 Mar. Two MR2 tankers at/near refinery = potential NZ loading.
Singapore 18 Mar 1,792 arrivals/24h. Too noisy for VesselFinder bulk monitoring. Need MarineTraffic vessel-name searches for NZ-route fleets. Not individually identifiable in bulk data. Use MT to track Hafnia, Torm, STI fleets.
NZ Fuel Supply Security Analysis — Live Monitor
Scenario Model · Live Monitor · Assumptions & Sources
Independent research by Brian Kearney. Data from NZ port schedules, MarineTraffic AIS, VesselFinder, and MBIE.