NZ Fuel Supply Model — Hormuz Crisis Scenario Tool

NZ fuel supply security · internal research · 28 Apr 2026

Hormuz crisis — supply chain & stock model

FUEL SCE · CONFIRMED

MBIE 28 Mar

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MODEL PROJECTED

under scenario

This model is an independent analytical exercise by Brian Kearney. It does not represent the views of MBIE, any government agency, or any employer. All scenario outputs are illustrative projections under stated assumptions, not forecasts or predictions.

Crisis start 28 Feb 2026 · Today Day +59 · MBIE data 22 Apr (published ~25 Apr) · SCE level 1 · Last confirmed departure 27 Apr (1-day gap) · Strait throughput <10%

Petrol

57.9days (incl. on-water)

MSO floor: 28 days

Buffer above MSO: 29.9 days

✓ In-country 29.5d — recovered above 28d MSO

Diesel

49.9days (incl. on-water)

MSO floor: 21 days · tightest buffer

Buffer above MSO: 28.9 days

⚠ In-country 21.0d — exactly at 21d MSO line

Jet fuel

46.8days (incl. on-water)

MSO floor: 24 days

Buffer above MSO: 22.8 days

✓ In-country 26.1d — recovered above 24d MSO

Crude grade shift: Korea/Singapore running non-Hormuz medium sour (Yanbu/Kazakh/Omani). Distillate & jet yield ~5–8% below baseline.

Scenario assumptions

Load scenario:

Hormuz closure duration?How long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or severely restricted. ~20% of global oil transits Hormuz. Ceasefire declared Day 38 (7 Apr) but strait remains 90% disrupted at Day 47. US Navy blockade active. 60d = best case (rapid post-ceasefire normalisation); 90d = medium (drawn-out reopening); 120d = severe (no resolution by mid-year); 180d = geopolitical escalation.

S.Korea export ban?S.Korea may restrict refined fuel exports to preserve domestic supply. S.Korea provides 48% of NZ's fuel imports. A ban would immediately halt NZ-bound cargoes from Korean refineries. Historically, S.Korea has enacted export controls during past energy crises.

NZ demand reduction?Domestic demand response — either voluntary (price-driven) or government-mandated rationing. NZ's fuel emergency response levels: Level 2 = voluntary conservation (~25% reduction); Level 4 = mandatory rationing (~50%). No demand reduction is the most conservative assumption for stock depletion forecasts.

Refinery throughput detail Sing. 60% S.Korea 50%

SingaporeSRC confirmed 8 Mar

Current throughput?Singapore Refining Company confirmed a cutback to 60% on 8 Mar. This is a known fact, not an estimate. Singapore refineries are 65% dependent on Middle East crude — the cutback reflects reduced crude feedstock from the Hormuz disruption.

Cutback enacted?The day the throughput reduction took effect. Cargoes loaded before this date left at the pre-crisis full production rate. SRC confirmed the cut on Day 8 (8 March). Any NZ-bound cargo loaded before this date carries a full load regardless of the throughput setting.

Further cutback date?When Singapore refineries cut output further as crude buffers deplete. Hormuz loadings at 3.8 mb/d vs >20 pre-crisis (IEA Apr 2026). Force majeure declarations ongoing. Singapore's ~20d crude buffer from pre-crisis stockpile now substantially consumed.

Cutback target?The throughput level the refinery ramps down to over 20 days after the further cutback date. The "ME floor" (35%) represents the maximum output sustainable using only non-Middle East crude sources — effectively the hard floor when ME crude is exhausted.

S.Koreacuts confirmed

Current throughput?Blended estimate across Korean refiners. GS Caltex at ~84% (675k/800k bpd) but others at 30%. Japan METI shows 67.7% utilisation (pre-crisis >80%). Government secured 273M bbl non-Hormuz crude (Saudi Yanbu, Kazakh, Omani) which lifts the floor but doesn't fully replace. 50% is the blended base case.

Cutback enacted?Confirmed: S.Korean refineries began reducing output around Day 10. S.Korea's strategic crude reserves provided initial buffer. Cargoes loaded before this date are assumed to carry full loads.

Further cutback date?When S.Korean refineries cut output further. Korea's 25-day crude buffer substantially consumed. Non-Hormuz alternatives (Saudi Yanbu, Kazakh) arriving but not at scale. Forecast the next cut trigger date, or leave at "No further cutback" if current 50% throughput holds.

Cutback target?S.Korea's theoretical ME floor is 29% (71% ME-dependent). However, 273M bbl non-Hormuz crude procurement (Saudi Yanbu/Red Sea, Kazakh, Omani) raises the practical floor to ~40-50%. 40% reflects partial non-Hormuz replacement; 29% assumes zero alternative crude arriving.

Australia alternative supply?Whether Australia diverts some refined product exports to NZ to fill the gap from reduced S.Korea/Singapore supply. Australia has limited surplus refining capacity and would likely prioritise domestic supply. "None" is the most conservative assumption. Australia is only 4 days transit from NZ vs 17 for Asia.

90-day stock forecast

Stock levels by product (days of cover)

Solid lines = total stock (onshore + on-water). Dashed = onshore only. Thin dashed horizontals = MSO floors. Green band = confirmed vessel arrivals (actual data). Red band = departure gap (no confirmed departures → zero arrivals). Right of bands = smoothed model projections.

Supply vs consumption (normalized — 1.0 = normal)

Each bar = average daily inflow for that week. When bars fall below the red dashed consumption line, stocks are depleting. Bold bars use actual vessel tracking data. Faded bars = departure gap (zero confirmed supply). Standard bars = smoothed model.

Confirmed vessel pipeline

ETA	Day	Vessel	Port	Type	DWT	Supply	Running bal.

Key trigger dates

Day 0 (28 Feb) Day +30 Day +60 Day +90

Known facts & base data

Values sourced from MBIE (~22 Apr 2026, data as at 19 Apr), S&P Global Platts and IEA data. Click any value to override.

Current NZ stocks (MBIE 19 Apr)

Petrol — onshore

days

Petrol — on-water

days

Diesel — onshore

days

Diesel — on-water

days

Jet fuel — onshore

days

Jet fuel — on-water

days

Petrol MSO minimum

days

Diesel MSO minimum

days

Jet fuel MSO minimum

days

Values as-at 22 Apr (MBIE release ~25 Apr, fuelwatch.nz). MBIE Day 53 data: in-country P 36.1, D 21.9, J 24.9; on-water P 15.8, D 19.4, J 20.9. All fuels above MSO (D 21.9 in-country vs 21d floor). Total incl on-water: P 51.8, D 41.3, J 45.7. Model rolls forward 6 days to Day 59. Departure gap 1 day (last: STI Virtus Day 58). 31 vessels tracked. 3 NEW: Sea Orca 113,659 DWT (Day 74, Marsden Pt, ex Singapore), STI Virtus 49,990 DWT (Day 75, TGA, ex Pengerang), Esteem Discovery 49,999 DWT (watch — in Singapore, AIS dest Lyttelton). Hafnia Petrel ETA revised Day 62 (was 63), partially laden 8.3m. Pipeline extended to Day 75 (14 May).

Supply chain timings

Gulf → S. Korea refinery

days

Gulf → Singapore refinery

days

S. Korea refinery → NZ

days

Singapore refinery → NZ

days

Australia refinery → NZ

days

S. Korea crude buffer

days

Singapore crude buffer

days

Supply restoration lag

days

Crude buffer = days of crude stock held at refinery. Restoration lag = time to resume full supply after Hormuz reopens (updated Day 47: Hormuz still 90% disrupted post-ceasefire, 60–90d realistic).

NZ import shares & context

S. Korea share

Singapore share

Australia share

Other sources share

S.Korea ME crude dependency

Singapore ME crude dep.

NZ daily consumption

ML/d

Import shares should sum to 100%. ME dep. = % crude through Hormuz — sets throughput ceiling when ME crude exhausted.

Sources: MBIE fuel stocks update ~25 Apr 2026 (data as at 22 Apr, via fuelwatch.nz); MBIE daily demand: P 8.1 + D 10.7 + J 4.8 = 23.6 ML/day; S&P Global Platts; Argus Media; IEA Oil Market Report Mar 2026; vessel tracking 28 Apr 2026 from NZ Tanker Watch (Bluesky), VesselFinder AIS, Northport (Channel Infra), Port of Tauranga, Lyttelton PortControl, Napier Port, CentrePort, Port Taranaki, fuelwatch.nz.
31 vessels tracked. 3 NEW: Sea Orca 113,659 DWT LR2 (Day 74, Marsden Pt, ex Singapore), STI Virtus 49,990 DWT (Day 75, TGA, ex Pengerang), Esteem Discovery 49,999 DWT (watch — Singapore, AIS dest Lyttelton). Departure gap 1 day (last: STI Virtus Day 58, 27 Apr). All fuels above MSO. Total incl on-water: P 51.8, D 41.3, J 45.7. Pipeline extended to Day 75 (14 May). Live vessel monitor & source port tracking → · Assumptions, methodology & sources →
NZ Fuel Supply Security Analysis